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All this week, we're hearing about the demographic changes taking place in Texas and how they may change state politics. Our series is called Texas 2020. Democrats see opportunity in the fast growing Latino population. But the Republican Party is strong in Texas. Nearly two-thirds of the Texas legislature stands with the GOP. Republican candidates have won 100 statewide elections in a row. Republicans are beating Democrats in statewide races by a margin of between 13 and 18 points.
And as NPR's Wade Goodwyn reports, even with all the demographic changes, Republicans think they will still hold on to power.
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WADE GOODWYN, BYLINE: On an early Saturday morning in Austin, the meeting of the State Republican Executive Committee is filled with nattily dressed, smiling GOP leaders. Even the state chairman of the Texas High School Republicans has come with his fiddle.
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GOODWYN: This is a confident looking group. Matt Pinnell, the state party director for the Republican National Committee, has come down from D.C. to address them.
MATT PINNELL: In my role as state party director for the RNC, it's my job to make sure that state parties are healthy. And I can tell you emphatically that the Texas Republican Party is a very well-run machine.
GOODWYN: This is a very different party than when George W. Bush walked the streets of south Texas in blue jeans and cowboys boots and courted Texas Hispanics with his lousy but lovable Spanish. Those days are gone. Now, Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz and John Cornyn lead the fight against the immigration bill. And that has Democrats, both inside and outside Texas, rubbing their hands with anticipation.
They envision Hispanic voters flocking their way. Demography will then become destiny and the Republicans in Texas will be overwhelmed by sheer Hispanic numbers. And most everyone agrees, someday that's probably what's going to happen. But the $64 question is, when is someday?
ALLEN BLAKEMORE: Texas is not likely to become blue any time soon.
GOODWYN: Allen Blakemore is a veteran Republican political consultant from Houston. He's in the business of counting votes.
BLAKEMORE: The Hispanic participation is so low right now, I don't think anybody knows where the Hispanics are going to be 10 years from now.
GOODWYN: Although there were no exit polls, there's no dispute that Hispanic turnout in Texas in 2012 was low, very low. And the Republican-dominated legislature is working to keep it that way by drawing election districts that provide little competition. If there are few competitive races down ballot, say, for the Texas House of Representatives, Democrats stay home. Why bother going to the polls if the outcome is predetermined? Republicans, of course, know this and Blakemore says he expects the GOP will redraw the lines again in their favor in 2020.
BLAKEMORE: If you hold a majority when you draw the maps, you should be able to hold a majority throughout the decade. Certainly that's the planning and preparation that goes into a redistricting map.
GOODWYN: But demographic changes can only be held back through creative cartography for so long. And so, the Texas GOP announced last month that it will add nearly two dozen new staff, most of whom will organize Texas Hispanics. And the Koch brothers have pledged $8 million to the Texas GOP, to fight off the new Democratic organizing effort called Battleground Texas.
Still, the party is split. Many rank and file Texas Republicans think the leadership is nuts to believe that Hispanics would ever become Republicans in force. They're more interested in strict voter ID laws and high border fences. But other Republican leaders, like Mike Gibson, believe the GOP can recruit Hispanics and Asians and blacks.
Gibson is the Republican Party chairman of the most diverse county in the United States. He's fighting the popular notion inside the Texas GOP that you're not really a Republican unless you toe a rigid ideological line.
MIKE GIBSON: We come out with these edicts that if you're not this, then you're not one of us. Whatever this is, it doesn't really matter what it is. And then the Democrats have been very smart and jumped on that.
GOODWYN: Mike Gibson's county, Fort Bend County, is a suburb of Houston. By 2020, Fort Bend will be 25 percent Asian, 25 percent African-American, 25 percent Hispanic and 25 percent white. You'd expect this suburban and rural district to be a Democratic dream but it's solidly Republican.
GIBSON: This last election cycle, we got all of our candidates together and we organized the county and we were able to go out and walk and knock on 40,000 doors.
GOODWYN: Gibson does not sneer at President Obama because he's learned some of the voters he's trying to recruit like President Obama. And Gibson doesn't rail at the Democratic Party as a bunch of radical socialists because that doesn't sell with suburban Independents, either. Instead, he organizes relentlessly and talks about economic issues, education, jobs, roads, taxes, infrastructure, a strong military. Gibson is quietly role-modeling a more inclusive GOP.
GIBSON: And so, what we have to do is go and reach them where they are, not make them come to us. And we have to go with a message that resonates with those communities.
GOODWYN: Through his organizing, Gibson is uniquely connected to the state's political future, however the political leaders at the top of the Texas GOP play more to their deeply conservative Republican base. For example, when the Supreme Court struck down key parts of the Voting Rights Act last month, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott crowed that the state was now free to implement Republican redistricting maps.
These same maps were thrown out by federal courts as being intentionally drawn to discriminate against Texas Hispanics. Abbott's strategy is reflective of current Republican orthodoxy. And that is, if Republican politicians stray from their deeply held conservative values, their base will abandon them and they will lose.
Led by their steadfast governor, the party is championing a deeply religious, pro-life, pro-business, anti-tax and anti-government agenda. It's a political party wary of minorities' intentions, standing in firm opposition to Planned Parenthood and gay marriage. Like the Alamo, it's fortressed by patriots completely committed to their cause. And as they look out over the ramparts, they can see the future massing for an attack.
Wade Goodwyn, NPR News, Dallas.
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