STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
It's MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Steve Inskeep.
DAVID GREENE, HOST:
And I'm David Greene. Good morning. Seven days from now, according to the Treasury Department, the United States approaches the point where it can't pay its bills. The federal budget deficit has been dropping dramatically. But in the wake of the Great Recession, it is still very high.
INSKEEP: The deficit, let's remember, is payments that exceed this year's tax income - everything from the salaries of American troops to the salaries of members of Congress, to interest on the national debt. Congress voted to make those payments; President Obama signed off. But to finance them, Congress must vote again to let the government sell bonds, raising or suspending the debt ceiling.
GREENE: House Republicans say they can't do that unless President Obama gives them policy changes. The trouble is, they haven't agreed what to demand. and president says he won't negotiate under threat. Economists have been warning of a worldwide economic shock if this goes on.
INSKEEP: But to a small group of Republicans in Congress, those warnings are just hype. And we're going to hear their arguments this morning.
NPR's Ailsa Chang reports.
AILSA CHANG, BYLINE: To some Republicans, President Obama is living in an alternate universe - one where the debt ceiling matters. They might say, here's Exhibit A of the president's delusions.
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: To actually permit default, according to many CEOs and economists, would be, and I'm quoting here, "insane, catastrophic, chaos." These are some of the more polite words. Warren Buffett likened default to a nuclear bomb.
CHANG: To this band of Republicans in Congress, that's just crazy talk.
REP. JOE BARTON: Well, we're not going to default.
REP. TRENT FRANKS: A true default I don't think will occur. I mean, I don't think we're headed in that direction at all.
REP. PHIL GINGREY: To suggest that we can't pay our debts, that's absolutely not true.
CHANG: Congressmen Joe Barton of Texas, Trent Franks of Arizona and Phil Gingrey of Georgia form part of a group on Capitol Hill that says all this fuss about the debt limit is just fear-mongering. Each has his own theory about why the country is not going to default, but the conclusion is the same: Let October 17th come and go - without raising the debt ceiling - and America's going to be A-OK. One common theory: The U.S. will have enough cash on hand to pay Treasury bondholders and everybody else for a long time. Here's Gingrey.
GINGREY: We can honor our Social Security claims. Social Security checks will go out. Medicare claims will be honored.
CHANG: The problem with that theory is twofold. First, cash-flow. The money going out can be more than what's coming in on any given day. Second, the total going out is a lot more than what's coming in. Last fiscal year, the U.S. ran a $600 billion deficit.
Economists say if we don't get to borrow more money after October 17th, a lot of people, including Social Security recipients, won't get paid. But Joe Barton of Texas doesn't buy that. He says the U.S. can prioritize certain payments, so we'll just skip payments on less important things.
BARTON: You know, paying the travel expenses of the secretary of Commerce, maybe we'll only pay 50 percent of that next month. Or National Labor Relations Board, or some of the discretionary items that we can postpone. You know, it can be managed.
CHANG: Actually, the Treasury says it can't be managed. The department concluded it doesn't have the legal authority - or the technical capacity - to choose whom to pay first and last. It pays debts as they're due. And that takes us to another theory.
Congressman Ted Yoho of Florida says as long as we keep paying all the interest on our debt - meaning, as long as U.S. bondholders get paid - the nation's technically not defaulting.
REP. TED YOHO: Default is not being able to service your debt. We've got plenty of money coming in on a monthly basis to service our debt.
CHANG: But economist Mark Zandi says even if bondholders do get paid, they might not think their Treasury bonds look so hot after awhile.
MARK ZANDI: If you're a bondholder, and you're watching Social Security recipients not getting their check on time, you're going to begin to wonder how long can that possibly go on? Can I as a bondholder expect to get paid by the U.S. Treasury if these other constituents are not getting their money on time?
CHANG: So Zandi says people are going to stop buying bonds, which would raise interest rates. That affects stock prices, housing values, job growth. Yoho isn't convinced. He's a large-animal veterinarian by trade, but his analysis of the issue tells him that a default will actually stabilize the world markets.
YOHO: I feel in my heart that this is the right thing. I've talked to economists. I've talked - I've read a lot of research on this.
CHANG: But most economists, including Congress' top economist, have come to the opposite conclusion. Ailsa Chang, NPR News, the Capitol.