LINDA WERTHEIMER, HOST:
Now, continuing our look at commuting around the country, the story of a progressive city which hasn't made much progress fixing a snarling traffic problem. Back in 1970, Austin, Texas was a laid-back town, a quiet state capital with a population of a quarter million - a generous helping of politicians, seasoned with musicians. Today, Austin is one of the fastest-growing cities in America. One-point-eight-million people live there. And with massive growth comes terrible traffic. As NPR's Wade Goodwyn reports, models projecting the future show it's only going to get worse.
WADE GOODWYN, BYLINE: Want to know the absolute best way to experience Austin traffic? From inside Austin PD's new police helicopter.
RYAN MILLER: You all set?
GOODWYN: Breathtaking in the late afternoon sunlight, the state Capitol and the University of Texas Tower glow like torches. But tear your eyes away from the skyline to look down, and poof, there goes your pretty picture. Nearly everywhere you look, it's backed up - cars, pickup trucks and 18-wheelers crawling along.
MILLER: This is about the normal backup that we see, you know, about this time of day.
GOODWYN: Police officer Ryan Miller is up in the sky nearly every day. Miller says he's seen Austin's traffic grow exponentially worse during the last five years. Now a large portion of the city's inhabitants plan their daily activities with the traffic in mind.
MAYOR LEE LEFFINGWELL: We're tied for third most-congested city in North America, behind New York and L.A.
GOODWYN: Mayor Lee Leffingwell is a native Austinite, who, like everyone else, has watched with horror automobile traffic slowly ruining his beautiful city.
LEFFINGWELL: Yeah, there was kind of an epiphany, a moment in time when we realized that we're going to have to quit ignoring the problem, which we'd done for so many years in the past.
GOODWYN: While Austin fiddled decade after decade, Dallas was busy building the largest light rail system in the country. Thirty years later, it's the Texas city with the conservative reputation that has the regional mass transit network, not Austin. Austin's done practically nothing.
LEFFINGWELL: I think that is a fair statement. There's a very strong no-growth movement in our city. And that applies not only to transportation, but other infrastructure. And that is absolutely wrong, in my view. The growth trend has been steady and constant since 1870, and there's no indication that anything is going to change.
GOODWYN: In fact, over the next 25 years, Austin metro is predicted to double in population to nearly four million people. The Texas A&M Transportation Institute has built sophisticated computer modeling of Austin's future traffic, and the findings are not good. The commute from downtown Austin to the northern suburb of Round Rock currently takes about 45 minutes during rush hour. But by 2035, it will take two-and-a-half hours each way to go 19 miles.
TIM LOMAX: The technical word we use is awful.
GOODWYN: Perhaps nobody knows more about Austin traffic than Texas A&M's Tim Lomax. Lomax says Austin's relentless growth overwhelms all potential solutions.
LOMAX: If you do all of the scenarios that we normally think of as transportation improvements, it's still going to be awful.
GOODWYN: Austin is the largest city in America, with only one interstate running through it.
(SOUNDBITE OF TRAFFIC REPORT)
UNIDENTIFIED MAN: An update on traffic, James Santelli.
JAMES SANTELLI: 35 northbound, we're seeing delays...
GOODWYN: At just six lanes wide through downtown, the highway backs up for miles.
(SOUNDBITE OF TRAFFIC REPORT)
SANTELLI: Southbound on 35, we're seeing delays from 38th to Oltorf with a heavy traffic...
GOODWYN: A tolled bypass to the east of Austin was supposed to help relieve the bottleneck. But the toll road was built so far to the east, practically nobody uses it. In desperation, the state raised the speed limit to 85 miles an hour, fastest in the nation. The idea was drivers could drop the top, drop the hammer, crank the music and fly right past Austin.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
GOODWYN: It's a beautiful, wide-open highway, just empty, and the builders are nearly bankrupt. So now, the state is considering tolling I-35 and making the toll road free, and building a light-rail system and putting in more bike lanes. But Lomax says his computer models show the only real solution is going to involve changes in behavior and lifestyle.
LOMAX: We did some modeling to suggest the kind of magnitude of change. We used a giant hammer on the travel model. We took away 40 percent of the work trips. We said those are going to happen somehow, but they're not going to happen in a car.
GOODWYN: To keep traffic flowing in his sophisticated models, Lomax Tim plays god of Austin.
LOMAX: We said, instead of people driving, on average, 20 to 25 miles to get to work, now they're going to drive five, six or seven miles to get to work. That says there's going to be this massive shift in jobs and population.
GOODWYN: If Austin can do all that, Lomax says her roads and highways and his computer models stay the color green - traffic still flowing. But without those drastic changes in behavior, the entire region turns into red capillaries of doom, with everybody crawling along everywhere almost all the time.
(SOUNDBITE OF DOOR CLOSING)
KEVIN TUERFF: Home sweet home.
GOODWYN: Like many in here, businessman Kevin Tuerff first moved here to attend the University of Texas and never left. Ten years ago, Tuerff bought his dream home in the Austin Hill Country. As the population's exploded, traffic's become a mess. By last year, Tuerff was fed up with two hours on the road every day. Now, he rents a high-rise apartment in a gleaming new building downtown.
TUERFF: My office is about five minutes by car, or 12 minutes by bicycle. And that's what I love about this place.
GOODWYN: Tuerff is part of that 40 percent that Lomax needs to make his transportation models work. And there's a growing population of successful professionals paying 3 to $5,000 rent every month for the privilege of walking and biking to work and play. But what about Austin's many musicians and artists and, in fact, everybody else?
GOODWYN: At an Austin dinner party, the subject of traffic turns the conversation lively and interesting.
AMY SCOFIELD: I used to feel like I could go anywhere in 12 minutes. And I still have that mentality, and now I'm late all the time. And I'm stressed out all the time, because a 12-minute trip takes 25, at least.
GOODWYN: Amy Scofield is a successful artist who's lived and worked in Austin for more than 22 years. But as the city she loves has grown from a lovely university town into something bigger, she's thought of leaving.
SCOFIELD: I thought that about five or six years ago. I was really looking for someplace else to go. I felt like everybody's driving a Boxster and wearing a Rolex, and I don't relate to this population. But I couldn't think of any place, because I want this kind of - the attitude, the political mindset, the social mindset. But I also want warm weather.
GOODWYN: Scofield calls this mindset the velvet rut of Austin, and it's shared by many here. And that's the problem in a nutshell: not enough leaving, plenty more coming, and nobody, old or new, wants a fleet of bulldozers plowing up their pretty city. Austinites sometimes wear T-shirts that protest the relentless growth that say Keep Austin Weird. They've got their work cut out for them. Wade Goodwyn, NPR News.