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House Republicans will be announcing a winner tomorrow after a closed-door conclave. They'll be electing a new majority leader to replace Eric Cantor of Virginia. He's stepping down after being walloped in his primary last week. That surprise loss and the campaigning for leadership that's followed have exposed a rift in the House Republican caucus - one that's based as much on geography as ideology. NPR's S.V. Date explains.
S.V. DATE, BYLINE: If today's Republican Party can be said to have a center of gravity, it's in the South. The states that made up the Confederacy account for less than a third of the country's total population, yet in the 2012 election, they gave Republicans closer to half of their membership in the house and accounted for nearly 60 percent of Mitt Romney's electoral votes. But in house leadership - there the South has been underrepresented. And it's something southern conservatives notice.
REPRESENTATIVE MO BROOKS: Southerners think different than Northeasterners - from Midwesterners, plain state people.
DATE: Alabama's Mo Brooks says it's not fair that states in the deep South don't have so much as a committee chairmanship.
BROOKS: For whatever reason, in this particular conference the South has been discriminated against, and the heart of the South, in particular, has been discriminated against and is zero for the scoreboard.
DATE: Louisiana's John Fleming says tomorrow's election is a chance to start making things right.
REPRESENTATIVE JOHN FLEMING: I've been very concerned that we haven't had a voice at the leadership table, and this may be a good opportunity to have that voice.
DATE: But with the Majority Leader election less than 24 hours away, the likely winner is Kevin McCarthy, a California congressman who scores less conservative on many rankings than the man he's replacing. Winning would put him next in line to be speaker when John Boehner retires. The only one running against McCarthy is Idaho's Raul Labrador, a backbencher with little to lose. His long-shot bid was hurt by his inability to contact many of his colleagues over the weekend. Turns out the second-termer didn't have a comprehensive cell phone list. Matthew Green studies congressional leadership races at Catholic University.
MATTHEW GREEN: Anything is possible, but I would probably not put my money on seeing a Majority Leader Labrador in the next Congress.
DATE: And so southern members are setting their sights a little lower, on the number-three position McCarthy would leave open if he wins. For that job, there is a Southerner running - Louisiana's Steve Scalise. His main opponent is Illinois' Peter Roskam, McCarthy's hand-picked deputy in the choice of many of the establishment Republicans. But even Roskam's taken notice of the Southern discomfort. Members say he's committed to choosing a Southerner as his deputy if he's elected. Yet for all the wooing of the South in the capital right now, observers say there's a real danger for Republicans in identifying as the party of the South, particularly in presidential election years when whole states must be won - not just carefully constructed congressional districts. Francis Lee is a congressional expert at the University of Maryland. She says the party establishment fully understands the downside of embracing its Southern base.
FRANCIS LEE: There are stereotypes about the South. Some of them are accurate. And so, you know, a southern accent on the top leader of the Republican Party going on the Sunday shows - probably not what they're looking for.
DATE: Of course, not giving southern states their due also has a downside for Speaker Boehner and his allies, including McCarthy. Lynn Westmoreland is a Georgia Republican who helped defuse a challenge to Boehner last year. What does he think happens if a Southerner doesn't get a seat at the leadership table now?
REPRESENTATIVE LYNN WESTMORELAND: There's always consequences that come out of races. You know, we'll just have to kind of wait and see how this race would affect any race that would be in the Fall.
DATE: This Fall is when Boehner next needs to be reelected by his Republican colleagues. That vote will come right after the November midterm election that'll determine the makeup of the next Congress. S.V. Date, NPR News, The Capitol.