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ALEX CHADWICK, host:

Politics now. We'll go to Montana and a Senate race.

First, we're checking with John Dickerson, chief political correspondent for Slate, which is running an election scorecard.

John, different claims from Republicans and Democrats in the last day about the likely control of Congress after the election in two weeks. What does Slate say?

JOHN DICKERSON: Well, what we say is it's essentially still trending against Republicans in the House. So looks like they're going to lose their House from our numbers. And in the Senate, boy, is it close. We're looking at maybe a three, a four-seat pick up by Democrats. The key magic number of course is a six-seat pick up that will throw a control of the Senate into Democratic hands. They're not there yet, but the momentum is still with the Democrats in the Senate.

CHADWICK: A poll from The Washington Post and ABC News today says independent voters favored Democrats two to one. Does that sound possible to you?

DICKERSON: It does sound possible. The big key issue for those independent voters is Iraq. Iraq is not going well for the Republican Party, and those independent voters have said they're going to vote on Iraq and essentially punish the Republicans more than run into the arms of Democrats, although that would be the ultimate reality or effect of that. The question then now is will those independents turn out?

CHADWICK: Wouldn't that, in fact, turn these Senate seats that you talked about a moment ago?

DICKERSON: It depends. The real question here is whether on Election Day their anger about the war and about the Republican majority gets them out of the door and to their polling places.

CHADWICK: John Dickerson, chief political correspondent for Slate. John, thank you.

DICKERSON: Thank you.

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