What If Headwinds Don't Blow McCain Away?

Let's say John McCain and the Republican Party pull off the biggest presidential upset in 60 years. Or let's say they lose but keep Barack Obama's margin well down in single digits. Either way, it will prove something fundamental about American politics that we all ought to bear in mind.

Even a historic change in an election does not change everything, and even what seems a major turning point is only one point in time.

America's swing voters seem poised to entrust the nation's future to Obama, a man many regard as a question mark — a mystery with multiracial roots and a foreign-sounding name. These voters also appear ready to elect the most decisively Democratic Congress in 30 years.

But if they do, let's remember it has taken the most extraordinary combination of circumstances to make it happen.

Some will say this election heralds the New Millennium, or the return of Big Government. But it more likely means simply this: Most of the country is ready to turn to the alternative party after a period of intense frustration with the Republican conservatives who have been in power in this decade.

That frustration is far more widely shared — across the full political spectrum — than a desire for Washington to exert more control over the economy or the society.

The prevailing element in this environment is the collapse of the presidency of George W. Bush. His approval ratings have plummeted from the 90s to the 20s, the most precipitous decline of its kind since polling began. And when presidents fall this dramatically in public esteem, the opposition party wins the next election.

Some on the right like to point out that the current Congress is even more unpopular than President Bush. But they elide the fact that Congress, unlike the White House, has two parties. When you probe a little deeper, you find that Hill Republicans are at least as vilified as the majority Democrats, if not more so.

That's one reason Democrats are about to gain half a dozen seats or more in the Senate this week, along with a net of 20 or more in the House (added to the 30 they captured in 2006). That would put them right back where they were in 1994, before the Republican takeover led by Newt Gingrich.

In sum, the Republican brand was in free fall even before the financial system seized up in mid-September, and the bad news has done nothing but accumulate since. Given all this, it is remarkable that McCain and his often haphazard campaign have not fallen off the edge of the earth.

Is McCain's competitiveness just a function of some voters' doubts about Obama? Surely there are those for whom he is just too different, too open to charges of "socialism" or perhaps too black for the White House.

McCain deserves credit for battling the headwinds he has faced: an unpopular president, an unpopular party, a miserable economy and a foreign policy based on wars with no end in sight. The nominee was also keenly aware that he was not the choice of his party's conservative base, an awareness that helped make Sarah Palin his running mate.

The Palin pick did revive the party's enthusiasm and vigor. Polls showed McCain nudging ahead, for about two weeks. But the Palin sugar rush dissipated quickly when the focus shifted to bank failures, Wall Street losses and a job-devouring recession.

Still, we have arrived at Election Day with McCain within striking distance. He has kept it suspenseful, narrowing the gap in the polls, demonstrating the power of the GOP's hold on the voters even in a profoundly Democratic year. The center-right era may be ending, but a new era has yet to be established, and McCain's underfunded and often incoherent campaign has proven how hard it is to beat a Republican — any Republican — in a presidential election.

Let us remember that only one Democrat has reached 51 percent of the popular vote since Franklin D. Roosevelt. That one Democrat was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Jimmy Carter won in 1976 with just 50.1 percent, and Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy and Bill Clinton all fell short of 50 percent.

Polls show Obama's lead among likely voters to be as wide as double digits or as narrow as 4 points. Pollsters say the important thing is that all these polls show Obama winning and that he benefits from the state-by-state distribution of the vote in the Electoral College (the only tally that matters).

But we also know that Republicans come home and right-leaning independents revert to pattern. Longtime poll watchers cannot be surprised that McCain's vote share has climbed higher in the 40s in the closing days. And Democrats can't forget the misleading early exit polls of Election Day 2004.

America may be poised on the brink of great change, but it is hesitating in the moment. And if, in the end, the nation does take the plunge, Democrats should not forget the dread and doubt they felt on this election eve.

Yes, a change election challenges what we know about the parties and the voters. But much of what we know as political reality will survive that challenge. It will be relevant to governing in 2009, and it will be back for the elections of 2010 and beyond.