Should I Stay or Should I Go?
The unanticipated strong showing of John Edwards in the Wisconsin primary has given new life to the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. Okay, so he may have lost the state by 40,000 votes, and he may still be only one-for-17. But in a race that seemed to be heading in an utterly predictable direction, it was a reminder that maybe -- just maybe -- there's some life to this contest yet.
Still, the odds are not exactly stacked in Edwards' favor. History, as well as the compressed calendar, argues against his dislodging John Kerry. And while the purpose here is not to write anyone's political obituary just yet, the plain fact is that if Edwards doesn't do especially well on Super Tuesday, March 2 -- when 10 states' delegates are up for grabs -- there will be the inevitable questions of how long will he (or can he) stay in the race.
These will not be insignificant questions. John Edwards has bet the house on this race -- or should I say the Senate (he is giving up his Senate seat in his quest). But if he falls short of the presidential nomination, then how long he stays in the race could make a difference. For if he is eyeing the number two slot on a Kerry ticket, as many people think (see my colleague Ron Elving's Feb. 16 column on this topic), he knows that how long he yaps at Kerry's heels could affect his chances.
As Edwards weighs his options, and his timing, it might be instructive to look at the decision-making process of some candidates from the past.
Of course, it's pretty rare for rivals for the nomination to wind up on the same ticket. The last time it happened was in 1980, with Republicans Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. Bush had upset Reagan in the Iowa caucuses that year, but was never able to capitalize on it. Reagan beat him in New Hampshire, and in the South, and was clearly headed for the nomination. Bush managed some wins -- such as in Connecticut and Pennsylvania -- but the pressure on him to withdraw was intense. Ironically, Bush ended his candidacy just days after he won his most impressive primary win of the year -- a nearly 2-1 victory over Reagan in Michigan in late May. But by then the numbers showed Reagan impossible to stop. So Bush announced that he would no longer compete for delegates and would go to the national convention that summer and urge his delegates to back Reagan. While Bush did give Reagan some fits during his bid for the nomination -- who could forget the "voodoo economics" charge? -- it never got ugly or personal, and Bush ended his bid with grace and before any real damage was done. A few months later, Bush was the surprise choice as Reagan's running mate.
A different scenario was taking place on the Democratic side that year. Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts launched a bid to deny President Jimmy Carter his party's nomination. Kennedy was thought to have a fair shot at accomplishing the feat, but once 51 Americans were taken hostage at the U.S. embassy in Iran, party voters rallied behind the president. Like Bush, Kennedy did manage to win a few key contests along the way, like New York and Pennsylvania. But Carter had an overwhelming lead in delegates. On the last day of the primary season, Kennedy beat Carter in five of the eight states up for grabs, including California and New Jersey. But Carter won Ohio, and by doing so clinched for all intents and purposes the nomination. Kennedy could have withdrawn his candidacy on that day in early June, but did not. He fought all the way to the convention. The Democratic Party platform had so many concessions to the Kennedy camp that Carter himself was lukewarm about it. And though Carter won renomination with little trouble, it was hardly the kind of send-off he hoped for.
On stage with the president and Vice President Mondale at Madison Square Garden on that final day, Kennedy was stiff and aloof, showing no warmth for the man who would be leading his party in the general election. He had his say -- with a memorable "The Dream Shall Never Die" speech -- and bowed out of the race. But he withdrew much later than the Carter camp would have liked, with none of the graciousness that George Bush showed months prior. And it was a dispirited Democratic Party that went down to defeat in November.
Kennedy, of course, was not angling for a spot on the ticket that year, and his dislike for Carter was so strong that it may not have mattered to him what effect he had on party unity. John Edwards' battle against John Kerry does not carry -- at least not at this point -- that personal animus. Another difference between then and now is that in 1980, the battle for the nomination went on through June. Now, with the front-loading of the primaries and caucuses, 75 percent of the delegates will be chosen by early March. The quest for unity can be realized well before the convention opens.
By the way, the last time a Democratic convention chose a ticket comprised of two who battled each other for the nomination was in 1960, when Sen. John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts tapped Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson of Texas. Their battle, however, was much shorter; Johnson, in fact, didn't announce his candidacy until six days before the national convention opened that summer. In how we select our presidential nominees, that was a lifetime ago.
OOPS: Nancy Ray of Horseheads, N.Y., writes, "I agree wholeheartedly about what you said in your [Jan. 29] column, 'Anointing a Frontrunner.' After finishing reading it, I have to say I found it amusing that, at the bottom of the column, one of the 'related articles' recommended by NPR was one entitled, 'Win in N.H. Makes Kerry the Official Front Runner.'"