The Battle for Senate Control

Almost lost in the continuous back-and-forth between the presidential rivals is the tightening battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Of the 34 seats at stake, 19 are currently held by the Democrats, 15 by the Republicans. That might lead to the conclusion that the Republicans are more likely to add to their majority this year. But time and time again, we've learned that numbers don't always tell the story.

Going into 2002, the Democrats were thought to be the fortunate ones. They had to defend only 14 of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs. But it was the Republican Party that came away as the big winner, triumphing in the unlikely states of Minnesota (Coleman over Mondale), Georgia (Chambliss over Cleland) -- to name two -- and in fact retaking control against historical odds. It was the first time the minority party had captured control of the House or Senate in a midterm election when one of its own inhabited the White House.

Nor can you rely on following the presidential race script to figure out what's going to happen with the Senate. Look at what happened in 2000. There was an unfathomably close presidential result in Bush v. Gore, and yet with the Senate races, it wasn't close at all. One party, in this case the Democrats, cleaned up. They picked up enough seats -- Carper in Delaware, Nelson in Florida, Stabenow in Michigan, Dayton in Minnesota, Carnahan in Missouri, and Cantwell in Washington -- to turn what had been a seemingly comfortable Republican majority into a 50-50 tie. Thus, the case can be made that even if President Bush and Sen. John Kerry go down to the wire, it might not be reflected on the Senate side of the equation.

So let's not rush into any predictions just yet.

It makes more sense to weigh the two themes that have dominated so far in this year's Senate contests. The first, which has been evident for quite some time, is that Republicans are likely to pick up seats in the South. Five Democratic senators are retiring this year, all from the South -- Georgia, Florida, Louisiana and the Carolinas. The South was a monolithic bloc for George W. Bush in 2000 and may be so again this year (with the possible exception of Florida), and so Democrats have to be nervous about the region.

But while the GOP looks solid at this point in picking up retiring Zell Miller's seat in Georgia, there are too many variables in the other states to say what's going to happen elsewhere. The possibility of contentious Republican primaries in Florida and South Carolina, for example, could jeopardize GOP chances there. And North Carolina Democrats need to remember that only once has a Democrat ever won a Senate election in the Tar Heel State when a Republican carried the state in the presidential race -- as Bush is expected to do in November.

The other theme is that the supposed Republican advantage in the South has been tempered by some unexpected retirements among its own. Democrats were going begging for a candidate in Colorado, but following the surprise withdrawal of Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, they came up with a potentially strong candidate in Ken Salazar, the state attorney general. Oklahoma is reliable GOP country in presidential contests -- Bush won the state by 22 points in 2000 -- but the retirement of Sen. Don Nickles (R) has led to a Republican free-for-all that some in the party fear could result in the first non-incumbent Democrat elected to the Senate there since 1978.

Currently, Republicans hold a 51-48 majority, with one Democrat-leaning independent. A brief snapshot of seats to watch (incumbents in parenthesis):

ALASKA (Lisa Murkowski, R): Sen. Frank Murkowski was elected governor in 2002 and then named his successor after the gubernatorial oath -- a successor who happened to be his own daughter. Democrats have responded by coming up with their strongest possible challenger, former Gov. Tony Knowles. No Democrat has won a Senate seat here since 1974. Primary: Aug. 24.

COLORADO (Ben Nighthorse Campbell, R, retiring): Campbell's retirement came on the heels of health problems and ethics allegations. Democratic state Attorney General Salazar had been looking at the 2006 gubernatorial race when he was instead lured into the Senate contest. Top Republicans, from Gov. Bill Owens on down, considered the race but opted out. Likely GOP nominee is former congressman Bob Schaffer. Primary: Aug. 10.

FLORIDA (Bob Graham, D, retiring): This seat was Graham's for as long as he wanted it, but apparently the three-term senator, who also briefly sought the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, felt it was time to leave. Both parties have multi-candidate fields. Primary: Aug. 31.

GEORGIA (Zell Miller, D, retiring): Republicans have a real shot at holding both Senate seats here for the first time in history. Two GOP congressmen, Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins, are among the contenders. Democrats are still trying to find a name candidate; they'll get no help from Miller, who has said he won't endorse whomever the Dems put up and who already has endorsed President Bush for re-election. Primary: July 20.

ILLINOIS (Peter Fitzgerald, R, retiring): Fitzgerald is leaving office after only one term. He unseated the ethics-questioned Carol Moseley Braun six years ago, and then only by the barest of margins. In the March 16 primary, Democrats nominated state Sen. Barack Obama, who if he wins would become only the third African American sent to the Senate since Reconstruction. The Republican candidate is Jack Ryan, a millionaire investment banker-turned-inner-city schoolteacher.

LOUISIANA (John Breaux, D, retiring): Two congressmen -- Republican David Vitter and Democrat Chris John -- jumped into the race soon after Breaux's announcement. Others are either already running or are contemplating getting in. Republicans have never won a Louisiana Senate seat. Primary: Nov. 2. In the event no one gets 50 percent, the top two finishers compete in a runoff on Dec. 4.

NORTH CAROLINA (John Edwards, D, retiring): Edwards gave up a re-election run to concentrate on his presidential bid; now, his best hope may be a spot on the John Kerry ticket. Erskine Bowles, President Clinton's one-time chief of staff, lost a Senate race against Elizabeth Dole in 2002 and is trying again. The Republican nominee will be Congressman Richard Burr. Primary: Delayed until July 20.

OKLAHOMA (Don Nickles, R, retiring): Winner of divisive GOP field to face Democratic Rep. Brad Carson. Primary: July 27.

PENNSYLVANIA (Arlen Specter, R): Specter, seeking a fifth term, faces a potentially difficult primary challenge on April 27 from Congressman Pat Toomey, a strong conservative who claims Specter is too liberal for the Republican mainstream. Winner/survivor will face Democratic Congressman Joe Hoeffel.

SOUTH CAROLINA (Ernest Hollings, D, retiring): The 82-year-old Hollings is calling it quits after nearly 40 years in the Senate. Democrats have a statewide officeholder, education superintendent Inez Tenenbaum, to carry the party banner. Crowded GOP field. Primary: June 8.

SOUTH DAKOTA (Tom Daschle, D): Standing in the way of Daschle, the Senate minority leader seeking a fourth term, is former congressman John Thune (R), whose bid for the Senate two years ago fell short by just 524 votes.

OTHER STATES: At this point, the Republican-held seats in Kentucky (Bunning) and Missouri (Bond), as well as the Democratic-held seats in California (Boxer) and Washington (Murray), are probably still comfortable for their respective incumbents, but they bear watching.