Tough Political Week Ahead for the President

MADELEINE BRAND, host:

From the studios of NPR West, this is DAY TO DAY. I'm Madeleine Brand.

NOAH ADAMS, host:

And I'm Noah Adams. Coming up, we remember a soldier killed in Afghanistan.

BRAND: But first, President Bush is in Chicago today talking about Iraq and the war on terror. He's hailing the new government there, calling it a new day for that country.

President GEORGE W. BUSH: In three elections last year, millions of Iraqis cast their ballots in defiance of the terrorists. And now they have a government of their own choosing, under a constitution that they drafted and they approved.

As this new unity government takes office, it carries with it the hopes of the Iraqi nation.

ADAMS: And with this speech today, President Bush is acknowledging the central role of the war in Iraq in his presidency. It's a big issue for political figures in both parties, especially for those interested in winning the presidency in 2008.

It's also become a calculation for the upcoming mid-term congressional elections. And joining us now to talk about all this is NPR's senior Washington editor Ron Elving.

Ron, the war on terror and the issue of national security, this has all been the trump card of the White House, the Bush administration, for five years now. That seems to be changing somewhat.

RON ELVING, reporting:

It is changing, Noah. The war on terror has become the war in Iraq. And the public disapproves of the administration's handling of the war in Iraq by a ratio of two to one. The latest polls show the handling issue is really one of the worst issues the president has when it comes to the war, the handling of the war.

So it's going to be hard to get past that this fall.

ADAMS: Now, one of the president's strongest supporters about this war, has been Senator John McCain, his big rival in the party back in 2000. McCain has just given a series of speeches - that we've been hearing quite a bit about them - at college commencements around the country. Common thread: supporting U.S. mission in Iraq. Is it surprising that he would showcase big support for quite an unpopular war?

ELVING: It would be surprising coming from anyone other than John McCain. But of course he's a career military man from the Navy. This is his background. And he has prospered in the past by playing the champion on tough issues, including unpopular issues.

Now, that's one thing for a maverick or a challenger to do - as he did in 2000 - and probably will be quite different when he's the front-runner. But his biggest question mark right now is winning over the conservatives in his own party, the conservatives who vote in the primaries in 2008.

So it helps him in that particular struggle to be for the war, to be outspoken, to be up front in protecting the president. On the other hand, it could be a much higher hurdle for him in a general election against a Democratic candidate in 2008.

ADAMS: If Senator McCain is emerging as a frontrunner for 2008 with Republicans, Senator Hillary Clinton has that position with the Democrats. She, too, has been supportive of the mission in Iraq. Does that make her, do you think, vulnerable in the primaries, to an anti-war candidate - somebody who would come along and be against the effort in Iraq?

ELVING: Indeed it does. So she needs the same thing that McCain needs, really. She needs for the war to recede as an issue. She needs to see United States troops coming home - half of them, most of them - before we get too far into 2008.

That would allow her to stress her strengths and stay away from the war controversy as much as she can.

ADAMS: Could the challenger be Al Gore? Here's a surprise. He's been against the war. He's been out in the media quite a bit lately, and he's got a new movie out.

ELVING: Yes. The movie is called, An Inconvenient Truth. And it's proven to be a very convenient vehicle for keeping Al Gore in the news. That along, of course, with his Saturday Night Live appearances.

And would Al Gore like to be the president? Yes. Of course he would. But, will he directly challenge Hillary? No. He does not want to do that. Would he get in if something were to happen to her? Well, he'd be the perfect candidate who would have the name recognition and the ability to pull together disparate parts of the party.

ADAMS: And finally, Ron, the mid-term elections. Is it possible, the unpopularity of the war could be enough by November, to cost the Republicans control of Congress?

ELVING: It does not appear that that would be the case in the Senate, possibly the House. There is a big wave of sentiment in Washington and in national politics right now, to say that the house is in doubt - increasingly in doubt -this November.

I would personally say, that the conservative base of the party, the Republican Party, would have to stay home - or numbers of them would have to stay home -out of disillusionment, before that could actually happen.

But it's a real possibility, that significant proportions of that conservative base are reaching the point now, where they want to punish the leaders of their party and might stay home this November.

ADAMS: Senior Washington editor Ron Elving. Thank you, Ron.

ELVING: Thank you, Noah.

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