Determining the Scope of N. Korea's Test
Many questions remain about North Korea's reported nuclear test, including the actual size of the explosion and what it indicates about Pyongyang's intentions. U.S. spy agencies have a few ways of learning about the explosion, from "sniffer" planes to satellite photos.
ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
It's ALL THINGS CONSIDERED from NPR News. I'm Robert Siegel.
And to our top story now - North Korea's reported nuclear test. The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously today to condemn the move. And that the White House, President Bush called it a threat to international peace and security.
President GEORGE W. BUSH: United States condemns this provocative act. Once again, North Korea has defied the will of the international community. And the international community will respond.
SIEGEL: But the president was careful to note that the United States is still working to confirm that North Korea did in fact carry out a nuclear test. There are lots of questions about the size of the explosion, and what that may tell about North Korea's intentions.
Here with me now is NPR's intelligence correspondent, Mary Louise Kelly. And Mary Louise, first off, what do we know about the size of the test?
MARY LOUISE KELLY: Well, there are still conflicting accounts out there. But the consensus that's emerging today is that if this was a nuclear test, it was in fact a very small one. I was talking to two U.S. officials today. Separately they told me what it looks like is that this was a test in the neighborhood of smaller than one kiloton. Now, you would have expected for an initial nuclear test several kilotons. So several thousand tons, rather than several hundred as appears to be the case.
SIEGEL: So one explanation of a blast so small would be it might have been a test, but it might have been a dud test.
KELLY: Right. That this was a big test but that it fizzled. Other explanations include that this was a successful big test, but that North Korea also took successful tests to conceal it, that they dug deep enough and they took some steps to muffle the explosion. And there are possibilities. These are less likely untold. But U.S. intelligence is not ruling them out. That this was meant to be a small test, because it was a small warhead.
Or, this is also - did not being ruled out, that this was not in fact a nuclear device at all. That North Korea is bluffing, as they've done in the past. And that this explosion was the result of a conventional weapon, say TNT. That conceivably, you could generate a big enough explosion to set off the amount of seismic activity they're detecting with something like TNT.
SIEGEL: So, U.S. intelligence agencies are obviously trying to nail down which of those scenarios is correct. Had did they go by doing that? What kind of tools did they use?
KELLY: Well, sure. We mentioned seismic activity and, of course, we've got geologists as we speak pouring over the seismographs out of that region. The other big thing, and the CIA won't confirm this, but I'm told by people who've worked for the agency on similar matters in the past, they almost certainly would have a plane called a WC-135 up in the air right now. This is a sniffer plane, basically, and therefore, a sniffer plane - it can't fly directly over North Korea, but it can fly pretty darn close off the coast in international waters. And it's sampling the air, trying to collect particles, trying to see if it can sense radioactive gas and look for traces of plutonium.
And that's believed to be likely scenario here. That this was a plutonium bomb rather than uranium. They're, of course, also looking at satellite photos. They're going to see if they can find a crater, how wide is that crater, how deep might that crater be, what would that tell us. Any communications they can eavesdrop on from conversations - phone conversations, e-mails, that type of thing. And of course, human intelligence, anything they can get from old-fashioned spies on the ground.
Sadly, the U.S. has a pretty lousy track record with human intelligence in North Korea. One CIA veteran, Donald Gregg, who spent a lot of his career trying to penetrate North Korea is fond of calling that country, and I'll quote him, “the longest-running failure in the history of American espionage.”
I called Donald Gregg today and said does that still stand? And he said absolutely.
SIEGEL: So, where does this all head next?
KELLY: On the intelligence front, officials are saying it will be a matter of some days to go through these tests, to try to see what they can pull out of the air. Get confirmation that this was in fact a nuclear test. And then on the diplomatic front, of course, all eyes on the United Nations, where the U.S. and Japan are pushing for a tough resolution, possibly sanctions.
SIEGEL: NPR intelligence correspondent Mary Louise Kelly. Thank you very much.
KELLY: You're welcome, Robert.
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