Panel: Swine Flu Could Hit Half Of All Americans
A report from a presidential advisory panel has released estimates that the H1N1 flu virus could infect up to half the U.S. population. Dr. Steven Englender, the director for the Center for Public Health Preparedness in Cincinnati, says the kinds of numbers being put forward are consistent with the planning scenario.
MELISSA BLOCK, host:
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Melissa Block.
ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
And I'm Robert Siegel.
The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology have described what they call a plausible scenario of an outbreak this fall and winter of the H1N1 swine flu. Here come a lot of numbers: 30 to 50 percent of the U.S. population infected, symptoms exhibited by 20 to 40 percent of the population, more than half of whom would seek medical attention. The Council's report estimates that at that rate, swine flu could lead to as many as 1.8 million hospital admissions and anywhere from 50 percent to 100 percent of ICU beds could be used for swine flu patients.
Well, how do those numbers look to a community bracing for the fall? We've called Dr. Steven Englender, who is in Cincinnati, where he is director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness. Welcome to the program, Dr. Englender.
Dr. STEVEN ENGLENDER (Director, Center for Public Health Preparedness, Cincinnati): Thank you.
SIEGEL: And what do those numbers say to you?
Dr. ENGLENDER: These numbers are consistent with the planning scenarios that public health nationally has been looking at for some years. And at this point, what we've seen with the novel virus that's circulating, is somewhere between mild and moderate.
SIEGEL: Those numbers somehow don't sound mild. I mean, they - even if it's - even if they're huge ranges, somehow a third to a half of the population infected, sounds - is that typical for an ordinary flu that will have that many people infected?
Dr. ENGLENDER: I think we're talking about - the projections would be twice what you would see in a normal flu season. And the issue between mild, moderate and severe is not how many people get sick, but how sick those who acquire the virus get.
SIEGEL: If indeed it turns out to be worse than mild, is it a threat to your hospitals in terms of how much pediatric care they can give to sickened patients?
Dr. ENGLENDER: Absolutely. The novel virus is primarily affecting a younger age population. Even in a normal flu season, our hospitals have very little surge capacity. And children tend to be hospitalized or cared for at specialized institutions that are not as widespread. So, we've been talking about ways that in the more general hospitals, whether care might be more appropriate for school age or adolescent children to be at that institution instead of being transferred to a specialty for children.
SIEGEL: Facing a flu that - to which children are so susceptible - seems to pose very special challenges. That is, you're dealing with a part of the population where it might be hardest to get them not to put their hands in their nose or their mouth, whatever. And thinking back to the pre-Salk vaccine days, when I remember being told not to drink water from the water fountain because you might get polio, it's harder to do that without scaring the life out of little children.
Dr. ENGLENDER: Trying to strike that balance between good care and not creating a great deal more concern is a real concern. It's a particular concern because of the capacity of the health care institutions. The message is going to be: If you're sick, stay home. Don't go to the emergency room unless you are having trouble breathing, having a sustained high fever, because we have to take what educational measures we can to try and preserve the limited resources for those who are truly in need of them. It's a real balancing act.
SIEGEL: Dr. Englender, thank you very much for talking with us today about it.
Dr. ENGLENDER: Very glad to have the opportunity. Thank you.
SIEGEL: That's Dr. Steven Englender, who is director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness in Cincinnati.
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