Analysis: Afghan Policy's Effects On Obama's Goals

RENEE MONTAGNE, host:

These latest attacks come as President Obama is reassessing his strategy for Afghanistan. Joining us, now, for some analysis is NPR's Cokie Roberts. Good morning.

COKIE ROBERTS: Good morning, Renee.

MONTAGNE: Let's start with the question of U.S. troops. The top military commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, says he needs more forces, and there seems to be some push back from the president's national security advisor, Jim Jones, himself a former general. What do you make of all of this?

ROBERTS: Well, it's a somewhat interesting display of a public argument about what the policy should be. As you know, McChrystal was calling for - 40,000 is the number that bandied about - more troops. And he's been pushing for it through leaks and he had a meeting in London at a think-tank where he gave a somewhat blunt answer to the question of was the vice president right about pulling out troops, and he said no.

He has not appeared before the U.S. Congress, despite pleas from Republicans for him to show up there. But the Democrats know well that if he does go to Congress it will sway voters and therefore it will sway them, and they're looking for ways out of Afghanistan, not ways to dig deeper in.

So, I think that General Jones was sent out to reassure people that the troops aren't the only answer to shoring up security in Afghanistan, that there are lots of ways to prop the society other than sending them more troops. But he didn't rule out more troops, Renee, so the debate goes on.

MONTAGNE: Though how unusual is it for a commander in the field, to appear at least, to be lobbying the president from abroad?

ROBERTS: Well, I think that the public nature of it, as I said earlier, is somewhat unusual. But, you know, there've been these editorials saying that this is like MacArthur and Truman. No, he's not defying the president. He's not taking a strategy and refusing to implement it. He's trying to influence what the president decides.

And the question, then, is what effect does he have? Now, General Jones says there was a long meeting last week; there will be two more meetings this week. We know that the president met with General McChrystal while he was in Copenhagen. But the debate is getting intense, both inside and outside the White House, with the House and Senate Democratic chairman of the Armed Services Committees, for instance, disagreeing about what the best policy is.

So, I think that McChrystal is just trying to get in there and be one of the voices that has some influence.

MONTAGNE: Okay. So, President Obama just laid out his policy in March - the one he's reassessing. How would you assess his standing right now?

ROBERTS: Well, the trip to Copenhagen to push for Chicago getting the Olympics probably was something of a mistake. Now, of course, if he had won - if Chicago had won - it would be seen as a great triumph. But that coming at the same time as the jobless numbers being very high, bad news out of Iran, a disagreement with the allies, all of that is troublesome, obviously, for the president. It's a rough patch for him, so he needs a win.

And of course, the most obvious win for him to have is on health care reform, and that's a reason to focus on it and push for it. And it's a reason for Democrats to get it done, because they too understand that the president needs a win. That works for them.

MONTAGNE: So, is all that going to work to the end that the president will get a win? I mean, is health care going to happen?

ROBERTS: It is really a tough one. In the end, I continue to believe it's going to happen, but the Senate Finance Committee is probably going to report out a bill this week. But you already have liberal members of that committee saying, well, they're not sure they're going to vote for it. They have floor strategy that they would like to bring up.

You've got governors taking a look at the bill and saying we can't afford this Medicaid - this is health care for the poor - we can't afford those expansions. The costs are a real problem. And as people look at it, the premiums in some cases might cost more than the penalties for not getting health care, so there's a lot still to work out.

But I do think that the impulse is all there to get it done before the end of the year, if for no other reason, to give the president a political victory.

MONTAGNE: That's NPR News analyst Cokie Roberts.

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