Week In Politics Reviewed

MELISSA BLOCK, Host:

As we head into the weekend and that critical House vote on health care, we'll get the thoughts of our regular political commentators, E.J. Dionne of The Washington Post and David Brooks of The New York Times. Welcome back to you both.

BLOCK: Thank you.

DAVID BROOKS: Good to be with you.

BLOCK: And E.J., first, you. Do you assume the Democrats are going to get the votes this weekend to pass this bill?

DIONNE: I do assume that. I mean, if this is - every cliche in the book is true. This is do or die, make or break. If the Democrats fail to pass this, they will simply show they can't govern. If it does pass, they will achieve the largest domestic social reform in 45 years. Now, given that choice, I think that in the end, no matter how hard it is, the last one or two or three Democrats are going to go over the line because they don't want to cripple the Obama presidency, and this would be a major achievement.

BLOCK: David, what do you think?

BROOKS: I wouldn't assume it, but I would expect it. I'd give it, like, a 60, 65 percent chance.

BLOCK: Well, let's talk about some of the numbers behind this, the analysis from the Congressional Budget Office, that the bill would cut the deficit by more than a trillion dollars over the next two decades. David, how much credence do you give those numbers?

BROOKS: Zero.

BLOCK: Zero.

BROOKS: If nobody ever retires, that'll be fine, but people will probably retire. They take money from something called the doc fix where we pretend that we're going to cut doctor reimbursements by 21 percent next year, but we never actually do. So the whole series of dodges, which will probably run the deficits up to 60, $100 billion a year, even though the CBO can't score it that way, because it has to do with what's politically real, not what's on paper.

BLOCK: E.J. Dionne, do you put more faith in the CBO numbers than zero, which David Brooks is talking about here?

DIONNE: Now, is it perfect? No, it's not perfect. But I think there's more cost containment here than a lot of people give it credit for.

BROOKS: Could I just say, first, I'd like to think I have a shred of intellectual integrity.

(SOUNDBITE OF LAUGHTER)

BLOCK: We believe you do.

DIONNE: We believe you do. But I couldn't resist the line about Max Weber.

BLOCK: More than a shred. The least of a shred.

BROOKS: There's two separate issues here. One: Does it hold down costs? The Medicare actuary says health care inflation will be about what it is now. So, going up about eight percent a year. So, while our competitors around the world are spending, like, 10, 15 percent on health care, we're now spending 17 percent of GDP. That'll go up to 20, 25. Then the separate issue is the deficit issue. But to me, actually, the bigger one is the fact that it doesn't really control, according to the Medicare actuary, health care inflation.

BLOCK: E.J., I wonder if you can in your mind right now compose a Democratic add on this issue for November?

DIONNE: Your kids can go on your health insurance. That'll save a lot of money. No more rescissions. They can't take your health insurance away if you get sick. There are a lot of specific benefits like that. So they're going to talk about the specific benefits, but it really took some courage to do this, they will be able to say, if it passes.

BLOCK: David, do you think that'll fly?

BROOKS: You know, it's a historic accomplishment to cover the 30 million. And they do a lot of good things in the bill. There are some reforms on Medicare. There's bundling. There's a Medicare commission. There's some real serious good stuff in here. And anybody who says it's an easy call is probably lying. Nonetheless, we're adding already $9.8 trillion to the debt over the next 10 years, and that's going to go up under the bill.

BLOCK: I want to end on the Middle East. And E.J., let's start with you. The quartet has been meeting in Moscow about how to get peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians back on track, and they condemned Israel's decision to build 1,600 new housing units in East Jerusalem - that announcement that came during Vice President Biden's visit and set off a whole diplomatic tiff. Do you think, E.J., it's a serious setback or just, as the Israeli ambassador told our friend Robert here today, just a badly timed gaffe?

DIONNE: If they react too strongly, they could make Netanyahu more popular, anger a lot of friends of Israel in the United States. So they've been in a very difficult position. My hope is it was such a big mistake that it might change the direction of the talks.

BLOCK: David Brooks?

BROOKS: Bibi Netanyahu's lost control of his government. The Shas party, which did this, is totally going on its own. The foreign minister is a disaster. And so the Israeli government has had a whole series of screw-ups, to which I think the Obama administration slightly overreacted. Nonetheless, the prospect of peace in the next five years I think are zero. The Palestinians are split, the Israelis, where are there are. I don't know why we're pushing this. We should be focusing on Iran.

BLOCK: And what about March Madness? How are your brackets? David?

BROOKS: Georgetown, not so good.

(SOUNDBITE OF LAUGHTER)

BLOCK: Looking bad.

DIONNE: I was very, very sad about Georgetown.

BLOCK: Mine's terrible. Thanks to both of you for coming in and have a great weekend.

BROOKS: Thank you.

DIONNE: Thank you.

BLOCK: David Brooks of The New York Times. E.J. Dionne of The Washington Post and Brookings Institution.

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