Treasury Yield Curve Inversion Predicts Recession : The Indicator from Planet Money It wouldn't be favorites week at The Indicator without the yield curve. Meet it again for the first time in this classic from the first time Cardiff brought it to the show.
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Indicator Favs: The Recession Predictor

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Indicator Favs: The Recession Predictor

Indicator Favs: The Recession Predictor

Indicator Favs: The Recession Predictor

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  • <iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/984822184/984834969" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player">
  • Transcript

Note: This episode originally ran in 2018.

This week we're revisiting some of our favorite episodes! There's a warning sign for the economy with an amazing track record. And the last five times this signal flashed, the U.S. economy went into recession within about a year.

This economic crystal ball takes the views of people and institutions from all around the world and boils them down into a single, simple signal.

That signal is called the yield curve, and it began sending preliminary warning signs in 2018. On The Indicator, we explain what the yield curve is, and why it's such a powerful indicator.

Music by Drop Electric. Find us: Twitter / Facebook / Newsletter.

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