The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION : The Indicator from Planet Money There is one indicator that has predicted every recession since 1969, and that indicator is flashing red right now. It's the yield curve. But Mr. Yield Curve himself, Campbell Harvey, explains why this time he thinks his prediction could be wrong.

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The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION

The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION

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Al Drago/Getty Images
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 09: A &quot;Stop The Steal&quot; sticker is attached to a yield sign near the U.S. Capitol on January 9, 2021 in Washington, DC. A pro-Trump mob stormed and desecrated the U.S. Capitol on January 6 as Congress held a joint session to ratify President-elect Joe Biden&#039;s 306-232 Electoral College win over President Donald Trump. (Photo by Al Drago/Getty Images)
Al Drago/Getty Images

Here at The Indicator we've been on recession watch ever since the yield curve inverted at the end of last year.

For the uninitiated, the yield curve shows different interest rates on government bonds, aka Treasuries. Typically the longer the term on the bond, the higher the interest rate. The yield curve slopes up. But every once in a while, the curve inverts as shorter-term bonds pay higher interest than those longer-term Treasuries.

So what's the big deal with all these lines on a graph? Well an inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969. So now that the curve is inverted, is a recession imminent?

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