The Early Estimate: More Job Losses In March

Private employers kept cutting jobs in March, according to a report out this morning from ADP. But the net loss of jobs -- 23,000 -- was the lowest it's been since employment started falling in March 2008.

The number of service jobs grew, but not enough to make up for job losses in construction and manufacturing. Economists had predicted that the ADP numbers would show a gain of 40,000 jobs, Bloomberg reports.

The monthly ADP numbers don't get as much attention as the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs numbers, which are due out on Friday. But there are a few reasons to think the ADP numbers for March may provide a clearer picture of the long-term employment situation.

For one thing, the BLS jobs figures were driven lower in February because of that month's big snowstorms. The lack of massive snowstorms in March will drive a short-term bounce in the jobs numbers that isn't significant in the long-term picture. (Because of issues related to timing and methodology, the snowstorms didn't have much of an effect on the ADP numbers in February.)

And temporary hiring for the census will also give a boost to the BLS jobs numbers for March. Census workers aren't reflected in the ADP figures, which only include private employers.

Still, the BLS figures are a key point of reference for figuring out what's happening with the labor market. So everybody (including me) will try to look at Friday's numbers and sort the signal from the noise.

By the way, the BLS is hosting a chat Friday morning to discuss its numbers. You can submit questions in advance.