Forget the widespread rumor going around in recent weeks that Mitt Romney was going to announce his running mate this month. Perhaps, if the persistent attacks on Romney's taxes, investments and stewardship of Bain Capital started to show sharp erosion in his numbers, he would have moved up a V.P. announcement. But that hasn't happened. With polls indicating a continuous dead heat with President Obama, Romney is about to embark Tuesday on a week-long trip to Britain, Israel and Poland without first naming someone to his ticket. This foreign trip coincides with the Summer Olympics, in London, that last until Sunday, Aug. 12. The Republican convention in Tampa convenes two weeks later.
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Who will be Romney's VP? The naming of his running mate is likely going to come in mid-August, after his foreign trip and the conclusion of the Olympics.
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By process of elimination, Romney's widely-awaited announcement will probably come sometime the week of the 13th. And while I've long argued that the presidential race is always decided by who runs at the top of the ticket and not who is number two, there is no question that a lot is at stake in Romney's choice.
And that's why I'm leading with this e-mail question:
Q: You have touched on some of the poor choices presidential candidates have made picking a V.P. running mate, such as Sarah Palin, Dan Quayle, Geraldine Ferraro, etc. Could you expand on this subject? I would like to hear more about the good and poor choices and how this affected the election. — Neil Herness, San Marcos, Calif.
A: Many people will argue that the most important thing in naming a vice presidential running mate is that he or she should "do no harm," that, as long as the pick is not controversial or does not cause a distraction, that is a good thing. And if the choice actually helps? Well, that's a bonus.
In my view, not since Jack Kennedy picked Lyndon Johnson has the choice of a running mate truly affected the outcome in November. LBJ did, after all, help bring Texas to the Democratic fold in 1960. But the record for subsequent No. 2's is a bit mixed. Here's my scorecard:
Democrat: President Lyndon Johnson, without a vice president since he succeeded the assassinated John F. Kennedy in 1963, named Hubert Humphrey, the Senate majority whip, at the convention. He said the Minnesotan was best qualified to become president should something happen to him. Humphrey's avowed liberalism also helped soften some opposition to Johnson from the left. Verdict: PLUS.
Republican: Sen. Barry Goldwater may have picked Rep. William Miller of New York, the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee — who had already announced his decision to retire in '64 — because as an Easterner and Roman Catholic, he would bring geographical and religious balance to the GOP ticket. Or, as Goldwater said on more than one occasion, he picked Miller because "he drove LBJ nuts." Ultimately, though, Miller was a non-factor in the election, in which the GOP was buried in November. In fairness, nothing was going to help Goldwater that year. Verdict: MINUS.
Republican: It's not clear whether Richard Nixon even met Spiro Agnew before choosing him as his running mate. Agnew, elected governor of Maryland in 1966 as a liberal, moved steadily to the right in 1968, especially since Agnew's original choice for the White House, New York's Nelson Rockefeller, dillydallied on deciding whether to run. Agnew also received national attention when he directly criticized black leaders in Maryland in the wake of the riots following the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. That apparently won the notice of Sens. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) and John Tower (R-TX), who urged Nixon to go with Agnew — which he did, one day after Agnew nominated him for president at the convention. Of course, this was in the day when vetting potential VP picks was unheard of; had anyone done the most cursory investigation of Agnew, they might have learned about his corruption and bribe-taking — an activity that began even before his governorship, when he was Baltimore county executive. But Agnew did provide the red-meat attack-dog rhetoric Nixon clearly sought in his running mate. Verdict: MINUS.
Democrat: Sen. Ed Muskie of Maine may have been just as much of a national political unknown as Agnew was, but he was considered a serious and thoughtful, if colorless, legislator. And while presidential nominee Hubert Humphrey took a pounding, mostly from the left, during that divisive general election campaign, Muskie won respect from both wings of the party throughout the fall. Verdict: PLUS.
Democrat: If no running mate was going to help Barry Goldwater in 1964, the same could be said about whomever George McGovern was going to select in 1972. Still, the revelation by Sen. Thomas Eagleton of Missouri — just two weeks after he was picked — that he had been treated for depression with electroshock therapy and was hospitalized several times in the early 1960s threw the party for a loop. McGovern may have famously said he was "1,000 percent" for Eagleton, but there was tremendous pressure on Eagleton to withdraw ... which he did, 17 days after being named to the ticket. Verdict: MINUS. The Democratic National Committee then named Sargent Shriver as Eagleton's replacement, but he was a non-factor for the rest of the campaign. McGovern had tried to entice other Democrats onto the ticket, including Sen. Edward Kennedy, but they all said no. Verdict: MINUS.
Democrat: If Jimmy Carter was an outsider, from the South, with anti-establishment credentials and no Washington experience, Sen. Walter Mondale of Minnesota, a big-government liberal and a member of the "club" in good standing, was the perfect counterbalance. Though Carter was to have a strained relationship with many Democrats in Congress, they never lost their respect for Mondale. He also was a clear winner in his VP debate against Kansas Sen. Bob Dole. Verdict: PLUS.
Republican: In choosing Bob Dole as his running mate (and dumping Vice President Nelson Rockefeller in the process), President Gerald Ford did not focus on geographical or ideological balance. He was looking for a take-no-prisoners conservative battler who would appeal to the supporters of defeated presidential hopeful Ronald Reagan. But Dole proved to be a testy campaigner, and his performance in his debate with Mondale was seen as a disaster, notably his description of the two World Wars, Korea and Vietnam as "Democrat wars." Verdict: MINUS.
Republican: Ronald Reagan may have campaigned as a steadfast conservative, but in choosing George H.W. Bush as his running mate, he showed his pragmatic side. Bush was a conservative but in the moderate mode, and the Reagan-Bush ticket unified the party. Bush, of course, had to take back his earlier criticism of Reagan's economic policies and abortion views. It was the first time a GOP ticket was made up of rivals for the nomination since 1944, when New York Gov. Thomas Dewey chose John Bricker, his counterpart from Ohio. Verdict: PLUS.
Democrat: Walter Mondale may have thrown a Hail Mary pass with his selection of Rep. Geraldine Ferraro of New York as his running mate, the first woman in history to appear on a major-party ticket. But the history of the moment, and the ecstatic response the choice received from feminist groups, soon gave way to troubling news about the financial affairs of Ferraro's husband. In the end, though, no one can claim that the distraction about John Zaccaro is what did in Mondale — who lost 49 out of 50 states to President Reagan. But a distraction it was. Verdict: MINUS.
Republican: On paper, Vice President George Bush's argument for selecting Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana made sense. He was young, but not Jack Kemp; he was Midwest, where Bush needed help, but not Bob Dole. And he had the reputation of being a giant killer, having toppled Democratic Sen. Birch Bayh in 1980. But just as Ferraro's family finances were not properly vetted by the Dems in '84, the process by which Quayle joined the National Guard in the middle of the Vietnam War, and the family connections he used to get him there, became the story from Day One. And his performance against Democratic VP pick Lloyd Bentsen in their debate has forever been described as a "deer in the headlight" moment for Quayle. With the Bush-Quayle ticket winning 40 out of 50 states in November, it became one of the instances in which a ticket won despite the VP candidate. Verdict: MINUS.
Democrat: Since the Boston-Austin axis worked so well for Kennedy and Johnson in 1960, there was no reason for Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis to think it wouldn't work again when he picked Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen. And although Bentsen won plaudits with his handling of GOP rival Dan Quayle during his famous "You're No Jack Kennedy" debate performance, some in the party felt that Bentsen was a wrong fit from the beginning: He differed from Dukakis on many issues, and he was too far to the right for many progressives in the party to accept. And, unlike the 1960 comparison, Bentsen failed to bring along his home state of Texas. Many Republicans suggested that before Dukakis debated Vice President Bush, he might have to settle his differences with Bentsen. Verdict: MINUS.
Democrat: Bill Clinton abandoned conventional wisdom when he selected Sen. Al Gore as his running mate. Rather than seek any kind of geographical, ideological or demographic balance, the Arkansas governor instead picked someone very similar to himself: a young moderate from nearby Tennessee. One way they differed: While Clinton had the reputation as being a draft-dodging womanizer, Gore served in Vietnam, and his wife was a vocal promoter of "family values." And that didn't hurt either. Verdict: PLUS.
Republican: Plain and simple, Bob Dole selected, in Jack Kemp, someone he didn't agree with or especially like. They ran against each other for the nomination in 1988 and were on opposite sides of the deficit reduction vs. supply-side economics debate. But Dole, running behind President Clinton all year, decided that he needed to go for broke, and Kemp, though out of office eight years, remained popular with the Reagan wing of the party. Kemp, however, distinguished himself neither on the campaign trail nor in his debate with Vice President Gore. Verdict: MINUS.
Republican: Dick Cheney, who headed up George W. Bush's search committee for a running mate, perhaps knew better than anyone what the Texas governor lacked: national security and foreign policy experience. And he provided it. As someone who never pined for the White House, Cheney's addition was more about governing than simply campaigning. We can argue whether his policy pushes during his eight years in office were popular or not, but no vice president played a more crucial role in determining the course of the nation than Cheney. Verdict: PLUS.
Democrat: Al Gore was tormented by how to deal with a term-limited President Bill Clinton in 2000. The incumbent remained very popular, but Gore — searching for swing voters who may have been put off by Clinton's personal conduct — seemed determined to make a statement. He named Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, the first Jew to run on a major-party ticket — but more important, someone who had publicly and forcefully denounced Clinton's conduct in the aftermath of l'affaire Lewinsky. But if he also picked Lieberman to be an attack dog, he was sorely mistaken. Lieberman went out of his way to be nice, including during his debate with Cheney. And there's no telling how many voters who felt Clinton was a net positive for the party were alienated by Lieberman's selection. Verdict: MINUS.
Democrat: To say that John Edwards was not a successful vote getter during the Democratic primaries would be an understatement; he won only one state, South Carolina, where he was born. But he had a winning campaign style, and presidential nominee John Kerry, despite some personal misgivings, picked him to fill the ticket. Still, Edwards failed to bring in any Southern state in November to the Democratic column, and many partisans felt he was insufficiently aggressive in his debate against Vice President Cheney. And this negative report card does not include his later indefensible behavior in his personal life. Verdict: MINUS.
Democrat: In his two tries for his party's presidential nomination, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware never got very far. He could be, and was, long-winded and vain. He had a habit of making embarrassing gaffes, and several of his comments about Barack Obama ("articulate and clean," that the White House was not the place for "on the job training") threatened to come back and haunt him. If Obama was making the case that he opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning and stood for genuine change, he was naming a running mate who was 65, had been in the Senate since 1973 and voted for the war. But Biden was a great campaigner, very smart and well-liked. And just as Cheney gave the GOP ticket foreign policy bona fides, Biden's vast Washington experience and expertise in foreign affairs helped balance Obama's 15 minutes in the Senate. Verdict: PLUS.
Republican: At the GOP convention in St. Paul, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin gave a speech that brought the house down. And in doing so, she helped make conservatives who never fully warmed up to John McCain suddenly get enthused and excited about the ticket. That enthusiasm, and Palin's positive reviews, didn't last long. Verdict: MINUS.
(Note: This answer is derived from my Aug. 20, 2008 Political Junkie column, with some changes/updates.)
Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin. Here's some stuff that appeared in my e-mail in box:
Q: Do you think the GOP will win an electoral vote in Maine's Second Congressional district in November? If I remember correctly, Bush came within a few points of winning the district in 2000. — Joshua Holman,
A: Probably not. Yes, George W. Bush came close to carrying the 2nd CD in 2000, which would have given him an additional electoral vote (both Maine and Nebraska award an electoral vote to the presidential winner of a congressional district). But this doesn't look like a good year for Republicans in the Pine Tree State, and Mitt Romney's chances are only part of that calculation. The Senate seat of retiring Republican Olympia Snowe is all but gone, and controversial GOP Gov. Paul LePage would find it quite difficult to win a second term if the election were held this year.
And speaking of the state's 2nd CD: Bush's father, incumbent President George H.W. Bush, actually finished third in the district (and the state), to Bill Clinton and Ross Perot, in 1992.
For the record, Barack Obama narrowly carried Nebraska's 2nd CD in 2008 and thus picked up an electoral vote in the process. But that's not likely to be repeated in November.
Q: I've listened to the argument [in Political Junkie] and I still think you are wrong in insisting "both sides do it" regarding Democrats and Republicans using Nazi comparisons to trash their opponents. Yes, there were crazies on the left who portrayed [George W.] Bush as Hitler. But I can't think of anyone of prominence on the left saying what those on the right constantly spew out. You can't compare street protests with people such as Maine's governor LePage. And how can you forget Fox News' Roger Ailes calling NPR "Nazis," an outlandish charge he never apologized for. — Phyllis Bernstein, New York, N.Y.
A: I'll say it one more time. My point was not to say both parties trot out this garbage equally. As for whether respected people on the "left" have used this tactic, I remember reading that Al Gore once referring to Bush supporters as "a network of 'rapid response' digital brownshirts." That sounds over the top to me. I think the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) once said something during the judicial filibuster debate about a reference to Hitler. Look, do I think we've witnessed this kind of behavior more during the Obama years than the Bush years? No question. My only argument is that it's got to stop.
Q: I enjoyed your back and forth with [substitute podcaster] Brian Naylor in last week's podcast about the Green Party and when it actually was created. Brian should know not to question your amazing political knowledge. I hope he is not banned forever from the podcast! — Sherry Krauss, Minneapolis, Minn.
A: The only squabbles I ever have with Brian is about baseball; he's a Mets fan. Enough said. What he actually was remembering was covering the Citizens Party, not the Green Party, during its 1980 convention. The pro-environment party, which had contempt for all three major presidential candidates that year — President Jimmy Carter, Republican challenger Ronald Reagan and independent John Anderson — nominated Barry Commoner, a writer and environmental science professor. His running mate was La Donna Harris, a Native American activist and wife of former Oklahoma Sen. Fred Harris. The ticket was on the ballot in some 29 states (in Pennsylvania it was called the "Consumer Party"), attracting about 234,000 votes. The party also ran a presidential slate in 1984 but it dissolved not long after.
Q: Have you had a chance to see the "Political Animals" show on the USA network? Wondering what you thought. I liked it a lot. — D. Newman, Austin, Texas
A: I'm not sure. First of all, who's going to believe a TV show based on a woman who runs for the Democratic presidential nomination with the backing of her (former president) husband but loses and then becomes Secretary of State? How do they think up these things?
Seriously, while it's always nice to see Sigourney Weaver, I found — admittedly, after one episode — the writing and plot lines fairly predictable, sometimes inadvertently comical. And the caricature of Weaver's philandering husband, of course based on Bill Clinton, is just the worst. There has to be a reason why the country elected "Bud Hammond" (played by Ciarán Hinds), but you'd never know it from what we've seen. He's buffoonish/clownish and, quite frankly, embarrassing to watch. But other parts of the plot (as well as other characters) were intriguing. And so, yes, I plan on tuning in for the second episode.
Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions and sparkling jokes. In last week's segment, with guest host Jennifer Ludden, we spoke about the Veepstakes with special guest Dan Schnur, a California GOP analyst and director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. Click here to listen.
July 18 Junkie segment on TOTN
Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," up every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner in crime, Ron Elving, and me.
And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can usually be found in this spot every Monday or Tuesday. A randomly selected winner will be announced every Wednesday during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. You still have time to submit your answer to last week's contest, which you can see here. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN T-shirt!
Most recent winner: Susan Serna of Anchorage, Alaska.
ON THE CALENDAR:
July 31 — Georgia primary. Texas runoff primary.
Aug. 2 -- Tennessee primary.
Aug. 7 -- Primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington.
Aug. 11 -- Hawaii primary.
Aug. 14 -- Primaries in Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Aug. 21 -- Wyoming primary.
Aug. 27-30 — Republican National Convention, Tampa, Fla.
Aug. 28 — Primaries in Alaska, Arizona and Vermont.
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This day in political history: Rep. Larry Hogan (R-Md.), a member of the House Judiciary Committee, becomes the committee's first Republican to announce he will vote to impeach President Nixon for Watergate crimes. Hogan, a conservative who is seeking the GOP nomination for governor of Maryland, said that Nixon "lied repeatedly" about the Watergate break-in and coverup. For its part, the White House accused Hogan of being motivated by his gubernatorial campaign (July 23, 1974).
It gets worse for Nixon the next day, as the U.S. Supreme Court will unanimously reject the president's claim of executive privilege regarding his refusal to hand over tapes of his Oval Office conversations. As for Hogan, while his call for impeachment will gain him national attention, it will backfire back home; he will lose the September GOP gov. primary in an upset to Maryland Republican National Committeewoman Louise Gore.
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