#NPRreads: If You've Got 2016 Winners Penciled In, Think Again : The Two-Way Political scientists say it won't be all the political tussling that will predict a new president in 2016. Instead, look at the economy.
NPR logo #NPRreads: If You've Got 2016 Winners Penciled In, Think Again

#NPRreads: If You've Got 2016 Winners Penciled In, Think Again

#NPRreads is a new feature we're testing out on Twitter and on The Two-Way. The premise is simple: Correspondents, editors and producers throughout our newsroom will share pieces that have kept them reading. They'll share tidbits on Twitter using the #NPRreads hashtag, and on occasion we'll share a longer take here on the blog.

With that, here's one from NPR White House Correspondent Tamara Keith:

This article from Alex Roarty in National Journal takes the inside-the-beltway conventional wisdom about all-but-declared presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and puts it up against political scientists and their models. Its subhead:

Think Hillary Clinton is likely to win? Think again.

The political scientists argue that all of the obsession with tactics and strategy and relating to voters may have less say over the outcome in November 2016 than the trajectory of the economy, President Obama's approval rating and how ready voters are for a change. It makes me wonder if we should all just curl up by the fire with a stack of good books and check back in 18 months.