Is Florida in play? Maybe so. Analysts who not long ago gave McCain a comfortable lead in Florida now are calling the state a tossup. Pollster John Zogby has changed the state on his electoral map from red to purple. Even Karl Rove now lists Florida as a tossup.
However, an Obama victory in Florida may depend on African-American turnout. The Washington Post reports this morning that "he can win Florida if he increases black turnout by 23 percent over 2004, assuming he performs at the same levels that Democratic candidate John F. Kerry did with the other voters that year."
Getting new voters to the polls requires more volunteers -- and more staff. Every day we get a new press release from the Obama campaign listing new members of their Florida "leadership team." Look at the numbers: McCain has something like 60 paid staff members in Florida. Obama has 200. Reporters like Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times are joking there may soon be more campaign press handlers than there are press covering the race in Florida.