The Euro: Why Should We Care?
W: Welcome back to the program, Mr. Rogoff.
KENNETH ROGOFF: Thank you.
: So let's start with that basic question. Why should Americans care about a financial crisis half a world away?
ROGOFF: Well, this is a profound crisis in our biggest trading partner. It's our biggest export destination. If Europe suffers a crisis, has a growth slowdown, it's going to hit jobs here. It's going to hit our growth. Eventually, it's going to hit our financial markets.
: I understand that it would hit our export market also. Up to 20 percent of U.S. exports go to Western Europe.
ROGOFF: That's absolutely right. I mean, they're our most important export destination, and that's part of how - we're still struggling to come out of our recession. And sure, it's better that it's happening in Greece than in California, but I would - I think that's cold comfort. This is not positive, and we don't know where it's going to end. This is a very, very delicate situation that could spin out of control.
: We've had our own financial troubles in this country. Is it possible that the Greek problem could wind up teaching us some lessons?
ROGOFF: And I don't think our day of reckoning will look like this, but it will come when we have to face higher interest rates, we have to tighten our belts, and we might think it's not so easy when it happens to us.
: To the extent that our economy is in some way tethered to the eurozone, can you point to specific areas or sectors in our economy here in the U.S. that are directly affected by what's going on in the eurozone and specifically in Greece?
ROGOFF: Well, specifically in Greece, it's fairly narrow. Their, you know, big industry is tourism. It's only a very small percent of the eurozone, two and a half percent, something like that. But the fear is that it hits Spain, that it hits Ireland. The U.K. is even nervous about - they're still struggling to come out of a recession.
: financial services, all kinds of services, cars is a big export for the United States and Europe, a wide variety of capital equipment. I mean, it's a very important export destination. It's going to have a material impact on jobs if they're not growing.
: What about the impact on the dollar?
ROGOFF: Well, in the short term, the dollar has to benefit from this. I mean, the dollar has its own problems, but the euro's problems are bigger, and people aren't going to be thinking about diversifying out of the dollar right now into the euro. But over the longer term, if Europe were to resolve this, it could make the euro stronger.
: Is this, when we talk about this possibly being some sort of virulent contagion, is it something like the Asian financial flu or much more like something like Ebola, which was mentioned in Eleanor Beardsley's piece, something far scarier?
ROGOFF: So this could spread very, very fast, and once they run into trouble, you could even see hitting countries in Latin America, Mexico. I mean, there's - I do think they will draw a line, but it's not quite clear where yet.
: Kenneth Rogoff, thanks for being with us.
ROGOFF: Thank you.
: Kenneth Rogoff is a professor of economics at Harvard University and the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by Verb8tm, Inc., an NPR contractor, and produced using a proprietary transcription process developed with NPR. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.