In Kentucky, Rand Paul Tries To Ride Tea Party Wave

GUY RAZ, host:

This is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED from NPR News. I'm Guy Raz, broadcasting this weekend from NPR West in Southern California.

Voters in four states go to the polls on Tuesday to choose their party nominees for this November's midterm election. And in three of them Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Arkansas the so-called establishment candidates for the U.S. Senate are struggling.

We're told by pundits and analysts that voters want change this year, that the mood is decidedly anti-incumbent and anti-Washington. So what explains it?

Dr. RAND PAUL (Republican, U.S. Senatorial Candidate, Kentucky): I've been saying for months that there's a Tea Party tidal wave coming, and it's going to sweep a lot of incumbents from office.

RAZ: That's Rand Paul. He's the son of Congressman Ron Paul. He leads the polls in Kentucky's Republican Senate race. So what evidence is there to back his claims? Well, there's clearly anger and there's a lot of uncertainty, but can that all be attributed to one political force?

We begin this hour with a look at those key races and the challenges facing Senate candidates who are backed by their respective parties.

First to Kentucky, where Republican Trey Grayson, who has the support of the state's other senator, Mitch McConnell, is trailing Rand Paul. And Paul has never held elected office.

Ronnie Ellis covers state politics for CNHI News Service. And he's in Louisville.

Welcome.

Mr. RONNIE ELLIS (Reporter, CNHI News Service): Thank you. Thank you for having me.

RAZ: Let's start with Rand Paul. He is not the Republican establishment's candidate, but he does have the backing of Sarah Palin and people who identify with the Tea Party movement. What has he tapped into that seems to have resonated with voters in Kentucky?

Mr. ELLIS: He has tapped into both the Tea Party movement and the anti-Barack Obama, federal stimulus spending, growing debt of a conservative state that's registered Democratic but is probably Republican in sentiment these days.

RAZ: Grayson received the endorsement of Kentucky's Right to Life party, arguably more conservative than Rand Paul. Rand Paul sort of associated more with the libertarian wing.

Mr. ELLIS: That's certainly the case that Grayson's trying to make, that he is the traditional fiscal conservative and social conservative preferred by the Kentucky Republican Party.

Rand Paul has indicated that he's 100 percent pro-life and, of course, is now running what is probably an effective ad for him by Dr. James Dobson, the Focus on the Family founder, who initially endorsed Trey Grayson and then withdrew it and switched to Paul, claiming that he had been misled by senior GOP figures.

RAZ: Ronnie, conventional wisdom sort of assumed that Trey Grayson would receive the nomination early on. You've been covering this story for a while. Can you remember the turning point when it started to become clear that Rand Paul might possibly get this nomination?

Mr. ELLIS: You know, at one time, Trey Grayson was seen as the ideal candidate because he'd won two statewide races, including one in which the incumbent Republican governor was swept out of office. And he was seen as someone who could appeal across party lines.

Well, that was occurring at the time that Obama was riding his popularity into the White House. But the ground has shifted 180 degrees, and Paul has tapped into that. And all of a sudden, what appeared to be the ideal candidate in one atmosphere is now at a distinct disadvantage in a totally different atmosphere.

RAZ: Ronnie, on the Democratic side, a pretty tight race for the nomination between Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo and the Attorney General Jack Conway. Now, the last time, as you know, Kentucky voters elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1992, when Wendell Ford won re-election. What are the chances a Democrat might defeat the Republican nominee in November?

Mr. ELLIS: The Democrats think that chance is pretty good, especially if Paul is the Republican nominee. I think it's an uphill climb for either of them. It will be a competitive race this fall.

RAZ: That's Ronnie Ellis. He covers Kentucky politics for the CNHI News Service. He joined me from member station WFPL in Louisville.

Ronnie, thanks so much.

Mr. ELLIS: Thank you for having me.

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