Experts At Odds Over How To Avoid A Nuclear Iran Those who agree that the U.S. must prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons at all costs dispute what course of action to take. Some call for military attacks. Others want to instigate a regime change. But everyone says one thing's for sure: With Iran, there's no good option.
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Experts At Odds Over How To Avoid A Nuclear Iran

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Experts At Odds Over How To Avoid A Nuclear Iran

Experts At Odds Over How To Avoid A Nuclear Iran

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There's also a vigorous debate outside the administration about how the U.S. should deal with Iran and its nuclear program. Some favor military action. Others say the U.S. should focus first on changing the Iranian government. NPR's Tom Gjelten has more.

TOM GJELTEN: Here's the case for carrying out airstrikes on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities. A nuclear-armed Iran would so destabilize the volatile Middle East region that the use of force would be justified to block that development. Kori Schake is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. She was also a foreign policy advisor to John McCain during his presidential campaign.

KORI SCHAKE: I do think military attacks on the Iranian nuclear infrastructure may eventually be necessary to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. And I think preventing Iran from possessing nuclear weapons is an enormously important national security goal for the United States.

GJELTEN: Support for military action in Iran is especially strong within the so-called neo-conservative movement. But the neo-cons are not of one mind on this. Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute is a case in point.

MICHAEL RUBIN: I do consider myself a neo- conservative, and I very much supported the Iraq war. However, Iran is a different case.

GJELTEN: Rubin opposes military attacks on Iran. Not because he doesn't worry about Iran developing a nuclear bomb. He just thinks the best way to keep Iran non-nuclear is to push for a new government there.

RUBIN: I very much support regime change in Iran, and military strikes on Iran would set back regime change. And what I would use to support this is the fact that when we go back 31 years...

GJELTEN: Back to the Ayatollah Khomeini, who, Rubin says, almost lost control of the Iran after his 1979 revolution. Khomeini consolidated power, Rubin argues, only after Iraq invaded Iran a year later. At that point, Iranians rallied behind Khomeini. And if the U.S. were to attack their country, Rubin says, the Iranians would rally behind their government again.

RUBIN: Anyone who says that the Iranian people might rise up and support bombing their country has never been to Iran nor talked to Iranians.

GJELTEN: Rubin spent five years in Iran doing research. He has a whole list of ways the United States could promote regime change in Iran, like support independent trade unions, set up a clandestine communication system, recruit defectors - all to bring about an end to the current government.

RUBIN: We don't know where the chips will fall if everything collapses. But we should at least have a discussion first about where we would like to see Iran, and then walk backwards from that in policy to determine what we can do to sort of push and nudge the Iranian people and any post-Islamic Republic government in that direction.

GJELTEN: Promoting democracy in other countries is actually something of a U.S. specialty. Thomas Carothers of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace studies such efforts. With respect to Iran, he says there's one point to keep in mind: Regime change might not happen.

THOMAS CAROTHERS: I understand the impulse on the part of many people here in Washington now to say we do need regime change in Iran. It would be a good thing. But I'm cautious if we make that the basis of our policy and say our policy will only succeed if this occurs because, you know, there's strong evidence pointing to the fact that we don't always get what we want in that regard.

GJELTEN: Kori Schake of the Hoover Institution has another objection to depending on regime change to reverse an Iranian nuclear weapons program. Even a more democratic government, she says, may not be able to move against the hard-line elements likely to control a bomb.

SCHAKE: They may need to shore up their right flank and continue the nuclear program for some period of time or even indefinitely, and that, too, will be a problem for us.

GJELTEN: Tom Gjelten, NPR News, Washington.

MONTAGNE: And an update now on a story we're tracking this morning. Federal authorities say that last night, they caught a man accused of driving a car loaded with explosives into Times Square. His name is Faisal Shahzad. This morning, President Obama told a business gathering that, quote, "justice will be done."

BARACK OBAMA: This incident is another sobering reminder of the times in which we live. Around the world and here at home, there are those who would attack our citizens and who would slaughter innocent men, women and children in pursuit of their murderous agenda.

MONTAGNE: This is NPR News.

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