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When NATO troops start to leave Afghanistan in 2014, the country will need more than a trained professional army. If it's to stand on its own, it'll need electricity. Billions of dollars have been spent on electrification projects over the last decade, yet only a third of the Afghan population, at best, has access to regular power.
As NPR's Sean Carberry reports from Kabul, until the country can get the electricity flowing, stability and economic growth will also be in short supply.
SEAN CARBERRY, BYLINE: The Juma Mohammad Mohammadi Industrial Park sits on the dusty outskirts of Kabul. There may be eight to 10 different run-down looking factories. One makes candies, another makes snack foods, and there's the Omid Plastic Making Factory. They make plastic bags for things like salt or toilet paper.
(SOUNDBITE OF MACHINERY)
CARBERRY: Inside, three tall machines roll out bags, another prints labels, and three more cut the bags. It's a pretty small and fairly low-tech looking operation.
Abdul Qadida Sozai is the manager of the plant.
ABDUL QADIDA SOZAI: (Through translator) We have a lot of problems with electricity. There is no industrial power for us. We are using the same power as normal people.
CARBERRY: The power often isn't enough to run their machines at peak efficiency and the electricity shuts off several times a day, so they often have to resort to a generator.
SOZAI: (Through translator) We have a lot of material that needs a specific temperature. And, when the electricity goes out, we have to throw out a lot of material, so we lose money.
CARBERRY: He says that, at best, the factory is running at about 50 percent capacity and that means 50 percent of possible revenue.
GHULAM FAROOQ QAZIZADA: Most of our industrial port in the seven major cities of Afghanistan - they're just receiving just the limited percentage of electricity.
CARBERRY: Ghulam Farooq Qazizada is deputy minister for electricity. He says that industries are getting about 15 percent of the power they need and he says some businesses spend three times as much for generator power.
CLARE LOCKHART: Energy remains a huge constraint for the development of the country.
CARBERRY: Clare Lockhart is a former U.N. advisor in Afghanistan. She says that when she first started working in Kabul in 2002, most meetings were conducted by candlelight.
LOCKHART: There has been enormous amounts of investment and there's been some progress, but the outcome is far less than the input.
CARBERRY: She says that's in large part because the international community lacked a coherent development strategy for the last decade and initially relied on costly diesel generation. The security situation hasn't helped, either, with Taliban attacks disrupting projects over the years.
Lockhart says the country shows great potential in mining, small industry and agricultural processing. That could fuel desperately needed job growth, but only if there is power.
Currently, Afghanistan produces about 500 megawatts of electricity, less than a number of Caribbean islands. The country imports another 500 megawatts from neighboring countries, but that hardly meets demand. The country plans to import more power in the short run, but existing distribution lines can't handle the available supply from neighbors like Uzbekistan.
Clare Lockhart believes it's critical for Afghanistan to reduce its reliance on power from its neighbors. She says Afghanistan is well suited to renewable technologies, like small scale hydroelectric dams, as well as wind and solar power. And, she says...
LOCKHART: There have been very promising finds of gas in the north of the country. And, if this can be tapped and turned into energy, this could really help solve Afghanistan's energy security problems going forward.
CARBERRY: For people like Abdullah, that can't happen soon enough. He runs a welding shop in Kabul. He says the power is the best it's been in 25 years, but it's not consistent or powerful enough for his equipment, so he still relies on a generator. He says the generator is harmful to his staff and neighbors because of the exhaust fumes and the noise. Even though it's more expensive, he'd rather use city power, but it's just not reliable.
Clare Lockhart says that even if the international community can develop a clear strategy going forward, people like Abdullah are still going to need their generators.
LOCKHART: Even under the best estimates, in another decade's time, only 60 percent of the country will have coverage and that's the best estimate.
CARBERRY: Sean Carberry, NPR News, Kabul.
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