Looking Ahead in the Campaign The Iowa caucuses are over, New Hampshire's primaries are just a few days away, but what about the rest of the country? Alex Chadwick and analyst Juan Williams tell us about what to expect in upcoming state primaries and caucuses.
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Looking Ahead in the Campaign

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Looking Ahead in the Campaign

Looking Ahead in the Campaign

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This is DAY TO DAY. I'm Alex Chadwick.


And I'm Madeleine Brand.

Senator BARACK OBAMA (Democrat, Illinois; Presidential Candidate): You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days.

(Soundbite of cheering crowd)

Senator HILLARY CLINTON (Democrat, New York; Presidential Candidate): I am so ready for the rest of this campaign, and I am so ready to lead.

(Soundbite of cheering crowd)

CHADWICK: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Iowa last night pointing to the next battleground for votes - New Hampshire.

And coming up on the program, reporter Dan Gorenstein offers a New Hampshire travel guide for politicos.

BRAND: First though, we talk to our regular political contributor Juan Williams. We caught up with him on his way to New Hampshire this morning.

CHADWICK: Juan Williams, it's onto New Hampshire. Literally for you. You're at the airport in Des Moines on your way as we speak. This is right before our show. Tell me, what are you looking for in New Hampshire?

JUAN WILLIAMS: Well, the big story here in Iowa was turnout. And last time, in '04 in New Hampshire, they saw turnout also take a spike. It went up 42 percent. So the question is, are we going to see a similar spike in New Hampshire again? And if it's something like what we saw last night here in Iowa, it would be a big boost, not only for Barack Obama - the winner in Iowa - but for also Mike Huckabee, the other surprise winner in Iowa.

CHADWICK: You saw something last night, this great increase in voters coming out, new voters coming to these caucuses. In New Hampshire you have another phenomenon. You have the independent voter who can vote either Democratic or Republican; very fluid.

WILLIAMS: Very fluid. And what you saw here was that when you had independents come out, independents overwhelmingly went for Obama and independents again overwhelmingly went for Huckabee. And there weren't as many people making decisions at the last minute to switch parties. Now, you can do that in a place like New Hampshire. And I think it's going to mean that the independents are going to be determinative, but you've got a bigger player there who is very attractive to independents, and that's Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican. That could potentially take some votes away from Barack Obama.

CHADWICK: So let's look at Senator Hillary Clinton's campaign. Where is she coming out of Iowa? Number three in the Iowa caucus. Is she really trailing Barack Obama and John Edwards going into New Hampshire? The numbers, the poll numbers there don't show that.

WILLIAMS: No. At the moment she has about a seven-point lead, according to the average, if you look at all the polls coming out of New Hampshire. But again, Alex, it's all about these independent voters and especially these young voters who have made up the bulk of the independents here in Iowa. The independent voters were 19 percent of the vote in Iowa, and 41 percent to Obama. If that continues, you're going to see, again, a problem for Hillary Clinton. But what she's counting on is hardline people who have been committed Democrats all along. And among Democrats who participated in the election yesterday, it was a much closer race. And while much of the press is characterizing Hillary Clinton as finishing third here, it was really a tie for second with John Edwards.

CHADWICK: With the money that Mitt Romney spent in Iowa - and I heard this morning, I think, $17 million...


CHADWICK: With the fact that he has been the governor of New Hampshire's neighboring state, Massachusetts, isn't New Hampshire a place where he pretty much has to win?

WILLIAMS: Without a doubt, Alex. If you wanted to isolate somebody as the big loser coming out of Iowa, it would not be Hillary Clinton; it would Mitt Romney. Romney really had invested not only general campaign money, his personal money out of his pocket. He's lost here in Iowa. I might add the Boston Globe, you know, sort of his home-town newspaper, has endorsed Senator John McCain. So it looks like the one who's really on life support at the moment is not Senator Clinton; it's Mitt Romney. And if he doesn't win in New Hampshire, well, I think he's a flatliner.

CHADWICK: Your best political conversation of the week, Juan?

WILLIAMS: Bill Clinton. You know, he was staying in the same hotel, Alex, the Hotel Fort Des Moines in Des Moines. And you know, he just said, you know, he didn't win one of these primaries before Georgia. And I sensed that he was prepared to take one here. And don't forget this is a guy that knows what it means to be the comeback kid. And so now he's looking for Hillary Clinton, his wife, to be the comeback kid redo, if you will.

CHADWICK: Juan Williams, NPR news analyst, regular Friday guest on DAY TO DAY.

Juan, thanks again. We'll talk to you next week, who knows where.

WILLIAMS: Thanks, Alex.

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