ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:
The Antarctic is far away, freezing and buried under a patchwork of ice sheets and glaciers. A warming climate is altering that mosaic in unpredictable ways. And as NPR's Christopher Joyce reports, new research shows the pace of change in parts of the Antarctic is accelerating.
CHRISTOPHER JOYCE, BYLINE: Many of the ice sheets that blanket Antarctica run right down to the land's edge and then out into the ocean, where they form floating ice shelves. Some of those shelves have been shrinking lately. Now a team of scientists has discovered that shelves in the west Antarctic are shrinking a lot faster than they realized.
HELEN FRICKER: We are starting to lose more ice at a faster rate. We're accelerating.
JOYCE: Helen Fricker, a climate scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California, says the rate of shrinking has increased by 70 percent over the past decade. That's based on satellite measurements of the ice taken over an 18-year period. Briefer snapshots of the ice had missed the overall trend. Important? Yes because the enormous mass of ice sitting on the Antarctic bedrock - grounded ice, it's called - is held back from the ocean by those shrinking ice shelves.
FRICKER: They're stopping that grounded ice flowing off the continent into the ocean just by being there. So it's kind of like a restraining force.
JOYCE: What keeps climate scientists awake at night is what happens if the shelves thin down to the point of collapse? Huge ice sheets on land could flow into the ocean. That's new ice added to the sea, making its overall level rise.
FRICKER: If you're sitting at the bar with a gin and tonic and you've got it full and the bar person decides they want to put an extra ice cube in, it's going to spill your drink.
JOYCE: The grounded ice in the west Antarctic alone could raise sea levels around the world by over 9 feet if all of it melted. The research appears in the journal Science. Polar climate expert Richard Alley at Penn State University says scientists don't know how much melting these ice shelves can take before they collapse.
RICHARD ALLEY: It's toppling the domino. You don't push quite hard enough, and nothing happens. And you push a little bit harder, and it falls over.
JOYCE: And as to what's causing the shrinking...
ALLEY: Some combination of slightly warmer water. But more so, it is winds changing in ways that bring warmer water to the ice sheet.
JOYCE: No one thinks an Arctic Armageddon is imminent. But things can happen quickly. In 2002, and Antarctic shelf called Larsen B did collapse in just three weeks. It was the size of Rhode Island. Christopher Joyce, NPR News.
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