< The U.S. predicted his downfall but Maduro strengthens his grip on power in Venezuela

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In Venezuela, a million children suffer from malnutrition. The economy there is in shambles. And yet, in state and local elections last month, the ruling party of President Nicolas Maduro won most of the races.

From Caracas, reporter John Otis looks at how Maduro has kept his grip on power.

JOHN OTIS, BYLINE: In response to Nicolas Maduro's authoritarian rule, the U.S. in 2019 sanctioned Venezuela's vital oil industry. In addition, the U.S. and about 50 other countries recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela's legitimate head of state.

Speaking to Fox News at the time, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo predicted these moves would force Maduro from power.

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MIKE POMPEO: This is the worst of the worst of a tyrant. We're very hopeful that the Maduro regime will understand that the Venezuelan people have made its days numbered.

OTIS: But Maduro has withstood the pressure. And Venezuelan government propaganda now portrays him as a superhero.

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UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: (Speaking Spanish).

OTIS: This is an animated series on state TV that depicts Maduro as a caped crusader who fights off Yankee aggression with an iron fist. But rather than superpowers, Maduro's survival has largely depended on the Venezuelan military. It has crushed anti-Maduro protests while taking over lucrative government functions, such as food distribution and border control.

Caracas academic Benjamin Scharifker says top military commanders remain loyal to Maduro because they receive a lot of benefits and because they fear going to prison under a new government.

BENJAMIN SCHARIFKER: If they lose power, then they will be subject to cases due to human rights violations, corruption, money laundering, and so on and so forth. To leave power, there are no incentives at all.

OTIS: Although U.S. sanctions hit hard, Venezuela is selling more oil to allies, like Russia and Turkey, and production is bouncing back. The Maduro government also earns millions from gold mining, while some military officers are deeply involved in drug trafficking, Scharifker says.

SCHARIFKER: So even though there are sanctions, even though there is a collapse of the economy, still, you have enough money to pay benefits to the military and to have support from the real powers.

OTIS: All told, Venezuela's economy has shrunk by about 80% over the past five years. But instead of weakening Maduro, the crisis has actually given his government more control over the population.

TEMIR PORRAS: I think there is a misunderstanding that economic hardship translates into political change, and things don't work out that easily.

OTIS: That's Temir Porras, a former top aide to Maduro, who is now a political science professor in Paris.

PORRAS: The poorest of the Venezuelans - in the face of economic hardship, they become more dependent on any assistance they can get from government agencies.

OTIS: Over the past year, the Maduro government has adapted the U.S. dollar as Venezuela's de facto currency and has relaxed state controls on the private sector. That has reactivated some areas of the economy. Also taking pressure off Maduro is the fact that about 6 million Venezuelans, most of whom despise the president, have fled the country. Venezuela's numerous opposition parties, in turn, often attack one another rather than the government. And recent polls show that Juan Guaido, the leader of the opposition, is nearly as unpopular as Maduro.

Again, here's Temir Porras.

PORRAS: When you go to an election, your objective is not to become the most popular person in the country. You need only to beat your opponents. And Maduro has managed to beat a very fragmented opposition.

OTIS: But Maduro has done so in elections that have been neither free nor fair, including last month's balloting for governors and mayors. In those races, observers from the European Union criticized his government for banning some opposition politicians, taking over several opposition parties and boosting pro-Maduro candidates with massive publicity on state TV.

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NICOLAS MADURO: (Speaking Spanish).

OTIS: In his speech, Maduro responded by calling the electoral observers enemies and spies. Given his disdain for free elections, Maduro's opponents warn that he's turning into a tyrant who will never give up power. But Maduro allies, like ruling party congressman Francisco Torrealba, insist that won't happen.

FRANCISCO TORREALBA: (Speaking Spanish).

OTIS: "I wish people could get to know him," Torrealba says, "because no one is farther away from becoming a dictator than Nicolas Maduro."

For NPR News, I'm John Otis in Caracas.

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