TONY COX, host:
And our last headline takes us to a group of folks who won't be getting any achievement awards this year - Congress. The latest Gallup Poll has their approval rating at - are you ready for this? - just 24 percent. The raging immigration debate has fueled disaffection on both sides. The Senate resuscitated the controversial immigration bill just yesterday that it stalled in recent weeks.
The legislation has bipartisan support on Capitol Hill as well as from President Bush, but that still may be not enough to get it passed. The bill itself is complicated and only getting more so, as its sponsors amended to win reluctant votes.
In its current form, sure to be challenged, the bill grants immediate legal status to 12 million immigrants now living here illegally, but it also imposes significant fees on them and includes a complicated re-entry formula that they would have to comply with before they could become permanent U.S. citizens.
For more on this and the rest of the week's political news, we are now joined by Robert Traynham. He runs his own consulting firm in Washington, D.C. and is an adjunct professor at George Washington University. We're also joined by Donna Brazile, former campaign manager for Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore in 2000. She, too, runs her own political consulting form - firm. Robert and Donna, nice to have you on again.
Ms. DONNA BRAZILE (Chair, Voting Rights Institute, Democratic National Committee): Good to hear your voice, Tony.
COX: Let's start with this. Earlier this month, Donna, the immigration bill had just 45 Senate supporters. Yesterday, 64 of them voted to keep it alive. What changed?
Ms. BRAZILE: Well, most of the senators who agreed to revive the bill, agreed to on the premise that their amendments would be heard some time during the debate. Now, there are approximately 24 amendments, 12 on each side. The Republicans are still trying to come up with a bill that will toughen border security as well as workplace enforcement rules. Some Democrats oppose to the new merit system that will give more points to individuals coming in with skills.
So I think this bill, while it's been revived, I don't believe that it's ready yet for passage. The basic provisions of this bill have been debated for years, but unless the Republicans are willing to provide more support for the bill, 80 percent of the Democratic Caucus voted initially in support of this bill. This is a bipartisan bill with strong backing from President Bush, but President Bush must bring forth more Republicans. Otherwise, this bill will not see the light of day.
COX: One more question on the immigration bill for you, Robert, before we go on to another topic. The next step is for the Senate to begin debate on the two dozen or so amendments, some of which Donna just made reference to. Congress usually moves in pretty slow motion, but they are using a tactic called a clay pigeon to speed up the process. What's that?
Professor ROBERT TRAYNHAM (Communication, George Washington University: Well, a couple of things, Tony, as you know, what you have to do is you have to get 60 votes, United States Senate to end cloture which is to end, quote, unquote, "debate on the bill." In other words, once you get 60 votes on the bill, you then have to put the bill up for passage either 51 votes or whatever the case may be.
Clay pigeon basically means - it's a couple of things. One is that some Republicans in the Senate are delaying the tactic, if you will, by reading all 373 pages of the bill. When you want to waive that, that's called a clay pigeon as you've mentioned before. But it's my understanding, according to some of the breaking news that I've read just a few moments ago, there are some Republicans in the United States Senate that actually want the bill read in its entirety, which will at least take until the Wednesday of next week.
COX: All right. Let's talk about campaign finance for a moment because the U.S. Supreme Court just relaxed campaign finance rules earlier this week, having to do with last-minute television ads from corporations and unions. Donna, what impact could this have on the race?
Ms. BRAZILE: Well, it's a key provision of the McCain-Feingold bill that was passed in the bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. I don't believe it will have that much of an impact because candidates, federal candidates cannot raise soft money, they cannot spend soft money, but it allows unions and corporations to spend their soft money before an election. But, these organizations, these unions, these corporations, they were spending it using their packs so I don't think it will have any impact whatsoever.
COX: Let me ask you, Robert, because the campaign-reporting period for the second quarter is coming to a close now and we're going to get new numbers. As you look at both parties, who do you think is going to be leading the way coming out of the second quarter? Will there be changes?
Prof. TRAYNHAM: Well, Tony, there's no question about it that the Democrats are beating this racehorse, if you will. But let me go back to what Donna said a few moments ago. I strongly disagree with her. I think that 527s and unions and other - independent organizations out there are actually breathing a sigh of relief because of this because this unleashes an enormous amount of power just in terms of them being able to advertise pretty freely right before an election. So I disagree with her on that point. But to go back to…
Ms. BRAZILE: What changes, Robert, because they were using their political action committee? They were using another legal apparatus of supporting 527s. Now, they can use their existing legal apparatus to finance those negative ads or whatever they intend to do with their money. So nothing changes.
Prof. TRAYNHAM: Well…
Ms. BRAZILE: Money will still be spent and, you know, it will go toward negative advertisements.
Prof. TRAYNHAM: Well, of course. But as you know, Donna, the difference is, is that they are able to spend even more money now. Because of - with 527, you can raise as much money as you want. There are no campaign finance laws, I mean, there is, but my point is, is that number one, you can hide your donors, number one. But also, number two, you can spend the sky is the limit. So I think a lot of 527s out there are saying, you know, this is a good thing for free speech, this is a good thing for democracy and this is a good thing for elections.
COX: All right. On to the other point, though, Robert, you were going to talk about who you think is going to come out ahead.
Prof. TRAYNHAM: I do think the Democrats are going to be winning this - oh, they are winning this horserace. There's no question about it. And if you take a look at the latest FEC reports, the Democrats have raised $22.7 million on their campaign committee, Republicans have raised about $12.4 million. The Democratic National Committee has about $14.3 million cash on hand and the Republican counterpart has about $4.3 million cash on hand.
So there's no question about it that the numbers speak volumes. They say that the Democrats have been outworking the Republicans in terms of fundraising, but Republicans have had a proven track record of raising a lot of money when the rubber meets the road, so really the proof is in the pudding, I would say within the next five or six months.
COX: Donna, do you agree with that and also put in perspective for us how important it is to raise money early.
Ms. BRAZILE: Yes, I agree with it. There's a great deal of energy on the Democratic side. The Democratic candidates are really raising a substantial amount of money. In the last quarter, they raised $30 million more than Republicans. I suspect that the Democratic committee just lost in candidates will continue to outpace the Republicans.
Over the last four years, we've narrowed the gap with the Republicans in terms of fundraising. I believe the Democrats will be competitive and money is a megaphone - it allows candidates to get their message out. Senator Obama is now on the air. Mitt Romney has been on the air for several weeks now. Former Senator John Edwards is planning to go up on the air. So this allows candidates to get their message out and of course, to compete effectively in all the important states facing them next year.
COX: As we bring our conversation to a close, I want to hit one other subject with the two of you experts and it's this - because immigration isn't the only thing that has members of Congress crossing the aisles. Republican senator from Indiana, Richard Lugar, as you both know, distanced himself for the first time publicly from President Bush's Iraq war policies this week, calling for an immediate drawdown of the troops. No sooner did he do that, and Ohio Republican George Voinovich followed him. Is there an inordinate amount of partisan shifting going on especially around the issues of the war and now immigration, Donna?
Ms. BRAZILE: Absolutely. Look, 70 percent of the American people now oppose the war in Iraq. Senator Lugar is one of the most respected members on Capitol Hill. He took a very bold and courageous stance by going on the floor. He's telling the president it's time to change the course. Other leading Republicans are now calling for a gradual and responsible withdrawal of our forces starting now, not wait until September. So it's time for these - members of the Senate not to just change their tune, but to change their votes and to set a realistic timeline for our troops to begin to come home.
COX: Let me give Robert a chance to jump in. You got about 45 seconds or so. What's going on here, Robert?
Prof. TRAYNHAM: You know, Tony, I love this armchair quarterbacking that we have 3,000 miles away from Washington, D.C. I think what we need to do is need - we need to listen to General Petraeus, who will report to the Congress and to the American people in the fall in reference to the surge that, actually, is happening as we speak. And keep in mind, every single Republican - Senators Lugar, Voinovich, Hagel, Snow, and Smith - that have come out and have been critical about this war, they have also said, and I quote, "we must not abandon our mission, but we must hold the Iraqi government accountable." Everybody wants that. The president wants that, the American people wants that - Democratic and Republicans. So, you know what? Let's call a spade a spade, and let's not armchair quarterback 3,000 miles away.
COX: Well, Tony Snowe…
Ms. BRAZILE: Our mission has been accomplished. It's time to bring our troops home.
COX: Tony Snowe did say yesterday, in response to Lugar and others that they are hoping that people will wait until September for this report from Petraeus to make up their minds. But it seems like people are a little shaky about that. I just don't have the time to have all of you respond, unfortunately, I guess that's the prerogative of the host to get the last word. Robert…
Ms. BRAZILE: Thank you.
COX: …and Donna, thank you very much for coming on.
Robert Traynham is a former director of communications for the Senate Republican Conference. He now runs his own consulting firm in Washington, D.C., and is an adjunct professor at George Washington University. And Donna Brazile, of course, is the former campaign manager for Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore in 2000. She also runs a consulting firm in Washington. Both joined us from our headquarters in Washington D.C.
Prof. TRAYNHAM: Thank you, Tony.
Ms. BRAZILE: Thank you, Tony.
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