Abortion access could continue to change in year 2 after the overturn of Roe v. Wade
JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
From the moment the Supreme Court overturned the right to an abortion last year, researchers and pundits began to predict the consequences. Now data are beginning to bring the real-life effects into focus. As the country begins its second year without the abortion access once protected by Roe v. Wade, NPR's Selena Simmons-Duffin asked two abortion researchers for their predictions.
SELENA SIMMONS-DUFFIN, BYLINE: Abortion access changed dramatically in the first post-Roe year. Fourteen states banned abortion. Millions of people had to travel further to reach a provider, and a recent analysis found there were 25,000 fewer abortions provided in health care clinics since the Supreme Court decision.
USHMA UPADHYAY: I expect that number to increase dramatically.
SIMMONS-DUFFIN: That's Ushma Upadhyay, a professor and public health scientist at the University of California San Francisco. Currently, she says...
UPADHYAY: There are several states in the Southeast that are really essential to abortion access - Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, South Carolina as well.
SIMMONS-DUFFIN: Those states are either considering or beginning to implement new bans. If and when those bans take effect...
UPADHYAY: It will cut off access for people in the entire Southeast, so it'll be important to keep an eye on what happens there.
SIMMONS-DUFFIN: Diana Greene Foster is a demographer and Upadhyay's colleague at UCSF. She notes that the number of abortions nationally didn't actually decline as much as expected in the first year. She thinks one reason is because of the abortion funds and websites that cropped up in response.
DIANA GREENE FOSTER: New funds popped up. People were generous. There was, like, this sense of emergency, and funds came in.
SIMMONS-DUFFIN: But that might not last in year two, she says.
GREENE FOSTER: I am worried about the resources drying up. On the other hand, the very first year is the year when the most resources are needed to set up the systems and get the word out.
SIMMONS-DUFFIN: Another thing that will happen in the coming year - the true effect of abortion bans in 2022 will become clearer when the CDC releases birth data. That takes a long time to gather and analyze, in part because full-term pregnancies take nearly a year. Also, the FDA is expected to approve over-the-counter birth control pills this summer, but Greene Foster doubts that will have a big impact on the need for abortion.
GREENE FOSTER: People want to hear that there's some silver lining and contraceptive use is going to go up, but most people who become pregnant and seek abortion were already using a contraceptive method.
SIMMONS-DUFFIN: Finally, the spotlight might turn to abortion laws in so-called haven states, predicts Upadhyay.
UPADHYAY: So many states that proclaim to be protective of abortion rights actually have gestational limits at viability.
SIMMONS-DUFFIN: That includes California, Illinois, New Mexico, Massachusetts, New York and others. Upadhyay hopes that these states will begin to go further in increasing access to abortion as other states go further to restrict access. Selena Simmons-Duffin, NPR News.
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