Why the Trump indictments have not moved the needle with Republicans
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
With each passing indictment of former President Donald Trump - up to four indictments now - Republicans appear largely unfazed. So what explains that, and what does it mean for the next phase of the Republican presidential primary?
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
NPR's senior political correspondent and editor Domenico Montanaro is here to discuss. Good morning, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: OK. So we should get across first that we're talking about Trump's grip on the base of his party, right? He's viewed far more negatively overall.
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, overall, he remains highly unpopular, you know, and has had a repelling effect, frankly, with independents. You know, Trump has led his party to a few disappointing elections in a row, and he's done very little to expand his base beyond that in the years since winning the White House in 2016. So it's pretty hard to see his path to winning again in 2024 without some help, potentially, from a third party. And that's why, you know, you hear Democratic strategists and pollsters really ringing the alarm bells about these potential third-party efforts that have been cropping up recently, especially because Trump and Biden are so unpopular right now.
FADEL: Now, Trump is competing in the Republican primary, and that's where he's seen far more favorably.
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, with Republicans, it's a totally different story.
FADEL: Right.
MONTANARO: They're living in a completely different universe than Democrats and independents when it comes to Trump. You know, about half of Republican voters seem nearly locked in for him and seem to believe almost everything that he tells them about what he claims are witch hunts and double standards. And that includes his baseless election claims. You know, we know that Joe Biden won in 2020 fair and square, but a recent CNN poll showed that 7 in 10 Republicans do not believe that. Fifty-six percent of those Republicans who said that they believe Biden lost said that they base those views on - get this - solid evidence, of which there's none.
FADEL: Right.
MONTANARO: You know, it really just shows how hyperpartisan our political environment's become and the results of Trump and other Republicans' relentless campaigns against expertise and definitive sources. And once you're able to undermine those things, you can really make people believe almost anything.
FADEL: Now, since the Georgia indictment came out on Monday, are you seeing new efforts by Trump to reinforce this sense of grievance with his followers?
MONTANARO: Yeah, definitely. I mean, it's been proven repeatedly in recounts, audits, dozens of court cases that there were no widespread fraud that would have changed any results.
FADEL: Right.
MONTANARO: And yet Trump will be at it again Monday in what he's calling a news conference from his golf course in New Jersey. He says he's going to present evidence of fraud that will vindicate him. But this is really an old page from the Trump playbook. He's done this over and over again since he lost in 2020. And all of the conspiracies he's put forward have been disproven.
In fact, Georgia Republican Governor Brian Kemp swatted these claims aside yesterday. He said again that the state's elections are secure and fair and that no one has proved anything under oath in a court of law and that there was no substantive fraud. Kemp really is an interesting figure. He's a Republican who rebuffed Trump and then cruised to reelection in a swing state. But not many other Republicans or any of Trump's current primary opponents, you know, have really chosen or been able to follow that model.
FADEL: Right. And that brings us to the first Republican presidential debate, set for Wednesday of next week. First of all, we don't even know if Trump will participate, but either way, his presence will be looming there.
MONTANARO: Oh, definitely. I mean, we know that the other campaigns have had Trump at the center of their debate prep. You know, some candidates who have been lagging want to make Trump answer for these indictments. I'm thinking of former New Jersey governor Chris Christie and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson and others. But, you know, the thinking in Trump world is, why bother when he's so far ahead in the polls? If there was a time to make a move, you know, you might think it would start next week in a primetime debate. We're going to see 'cause we're less than five months away from the Iowa caucuses now.
FADEL: NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thanks, Domenico.
MONTANARO: You're welcome.
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