Roll your eyes, but Black Friday's still got it. So here's what to look for
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Maybe you roll your eyes when you hear about Black Friday, and lots of people think it's overhyped, but it still is the busiest shopping day of the year as it kicks off the holiday shopping season. So what are we buying, and how can we afford it? NPR's Alina Selyukh is here. Should we be expecting massive crowds, Alina? Should I stay home? What should I do?
ALINA SELYUKH, BYLINE: That is your personal choice. But I do think you should expect a fair bit of crowds, definitely a lot of folks shopping online. The vast majority of Americans say they plan to shop on Black Friday. Over the long weekend, if you think through Monday, we're actually expecting 182 million shoppers, and that's according to the National Retail Federation. In other words, that's more people shopping than ever between now and Cyber Monday, which means I get to sound like a broken record because I seem to say this every year, but this holiday, we are on track to set a shopping record.
Retailers are forecasting that spending will grow. It will grow a bit slower than we saw during the pandemic boom but in line with the decade prior. And an average shopping budget, according to the National Retail Federation, is around $875. That's for gifts, decorations, other holiday stuff. And that's slightly more than last year.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So typically around this time, Alina, my eyes and desire are bigger than my budget.
(LAUGHTER)
SELYUKH: Yes (ph).
MARTÍNEZ: Any great deals out there?
SELYUKH: You know, these are the best prices of the year. That is why people roll their eyes and still shop. The last couple of years, we did see inflation, high prices put a damper on holiday discounts. But I've got good news for you. This year, Adobe Analytics, which tracks online prices, is predicting that we will hit a high mark on deals. They're saying discounts will be as high as 35% off between now and Cyber Monday and as high as 16% off in the weeks to follow.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So what am I getting in debt for?
SELYUKH: I think probably a lot of classics. If you're like other folks in this country, you might be buying lots of clothes and toys. Those are the top.
MARTÍNEZ: Toys - that's me on toys.
SELYUKH: Most popular ones are Legos, Hot Wheels cars, Barbies, other dolls - lots of nostalgia for us adults out there.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
SELYUKH: And there is a new theme this year. Maybe this one's for you. A record number of folks are saying they're planning to splurge on personal care items, like makeup, beauty, other personal care stuff.
And I do want to give a shoutout to gift cards. They're a popular gift. If you've ever felt bad about buying one - I know I always do - well, surveys every year find that gift cards are the most common thing people say they actually want to receive.
MARTÍNEZ: And slightly more personal than just cash, I think.
SELYUKH: Just a little bit. Just one step up from that (laughter).
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah, they're almost the same thing. Yeah. All right. So, Alina, are our wallets ready for all this?
SELYUKH: You know, shoppers all year have been saying that they are tightening their belts. We're talking about inflation, prioritizing food and necessities. But we've also seen people - you know, they're still traveling. They're eating out a lot. And there is, I think, a high chance folks will feel like, you know, 'tis the season to splurge and celebrate.
I talked to Katie Thomas. She runs the Kearney Consumer Institute. It's a think tank inside the consulting firm Kearney. And here's what she said.
KATIE THOMAS: I do think ultimately people will still spend. People are employed. Wages are good. If they're working, they feel like they can buy gifts.
SELYUKH: She's mentioning there unemployment remains near record lows. Wages have been growing. Also, inflation has cooled off, and some prices are actually declining.
But there is another side of the story, which is that we are shopping a lot on credit. More people are starting to fall behind on credit card bills, especially folks in their 30s. And so Thomas suspects lots of people will spend through the holidays and face the consequences in 2024.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah, that's next year. That's NPR's Alina Selyukh. Alina, thanks.
SELYUKH: Thank you.
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