LINDA WERTHEIMER, host:
To talk about the strategic advantages and possible pitfalls Republicans may be facing as we move toward the 2010 midterm elections, we reached Matthew Dowd. He's a political strategist who worked on the campaigns of former President George W. Bush. Welcome to the program.
Mr. MATTHEW DOWD (Political Strategist): Glad to be here. Thanks for having me.
WERTHEIMER: Matt, do you think that prospects are really as good for Republicans as the buzz would have us believe?
Mr. DOWD: Well, you know, they're probably not as good as some Republicans think they are, but I think Republicans are going to win a serious amount of races. They're going to pick up north of 20 seats in the House. We'll probably pick up north of five seats in the Senate and win governors' races. So, I think it will be a very good year for Republicans and a bad year for Democrats this year.
WERTHEIMER: How does the Tea Party Movement fit into what the Republican Party stands for, do you think?
Mr. DOWD: Well, I think the Tea Party movement is a reflection of what broadly the political environment, which people are upset at Washington, they don't think President Obama's administration has met their expectations, so they're angry. I think Republicans, better than the Democrats, have co-oped that Tea Party anger and disappointment mainly because they're more viewed as more outsider than the Democrats are.
So, I think that's been the power of it. It's a reflection of what's going on in society.
WERTHEIMER: But there are some bear traps in there, it seems to me. Does the Republican Party really want to change anything except the personnel on the floor of the House and Senate?
Mr. DOWD: Well, that's a huge problematic situation and both parties have faced this over the last years, how volatile the electorate is. Is - when you don't meet their needs and expectations, they quickly turn on you. Just as, we think, just a year ago Barack Obama was taking office, Democrats were expanding their margins, and now a year later they're about to suffer some huge losses. And so I think Republicans have to be very careful in reading, or misreading, the mandate of what happens in November.
It's not going to be a huge pro-Republican thing; it's a huge anti-Washington thing. And unless they reflect that in their policies and their decisions, then that can be a big problem going into 2012.
WERTHEIMER: Matt, one of the things that has happened that has prevented the Democrats and the forces of Obama from getting anywhere, is that the Republicans have simply just said no to just about everything. Now, is that a basis on which to run as an agent of change? Do you think that the American people are going to buy that?
Mr. DOWD: I think that you can get through an election if the American public's mad enough at an incumbent party. You can get through an election saying we're not them. You can't succeed in the years ahead if all you are is not the other guy. You have to have policies of your own; you have to try to get things done.
I think, though, you can fault the Democrats and President Obama, just as I faulted my former boss, President Bush. I think President Obama and the Democrats could have done a much better job trying to bring Republicans along and bring them into meetings. Yes, they could have ended up voting no in doing that.
I think that's what the country's tired of. The country wants folks to come together and get the job done and they don't think either party has done well.
WERTHEIMER: We're concentrating on the fact that Democrats are running for the exits, right now, but isn't it the case, Matt, that there have been some Republican defections as well? I mean, the Republicans have had a few members decide not to run again, who, you know, who will be missed and whose seats may switch.
Mr. DOWD: Yeah. I think what you're saying is that folks that normally would stay in Washington and try to fight out the elections on either side are opting to get out because I don't think they have enjoyed the toxic environment where it's like a dodgeball game. Everybody's afraid to walk to the middle 'cause they're going to get pelted by either one or the other side.
And I think there's been a bunch of leaders of both parties who will be missed, who have just decided it's too polarized and they have better things to do in their life.
WERTHEIMER: Matthew Dowd is an independent political strategist. He worked for the campaigns of President George W. Bush. Matt, thank you very much.
Mr. DOWD: Great to be here. Thanks for having me.
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