MELISSA BLOCK, host:
Those pro-democracy rallies in 1988 led to the overthrow of the long-time military dictator General Ne Win. But democracy did not take root. Instead a junta of army generals took over and they've ruled Myanmar ever since.
For more now on some key moments in recent Burmese history, we're joined by scholar Joshua Kurlantzick of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He focuses on Burma.
Welcome to the program.
Mr. JOSHUA KURLANTZICK (Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace): Thanks for having me.
BLOCK: Now, let's go back to one turning point. Burma was a British colony in the 19th century, but it got independence in 1948.
Mr. KURLANTZICK: Yes. But really quickly after independence, although there was a democracy, there also was almost immediate civil war. So they've had problems for sometime.
BLOCK: And tell us about that civil war.
Mr. KURLANTZICK: It was a civil war between a lot of the ethnic groups and the government and majority population. But compared to now, in many ways, that was still the golden years of Burma, and many people would tell you that in Burma now because it was a really a free country at the time.
BLOCK: And what would those golden years have been like?
Mr. KURLANTZICK: Free press, really strong debate. Burma is an extremely book-hungry society, powerful politicians, a real powerful economy, and a place that seemed like it was on the path to be one of the most successful countries in Asia.
BLOCK: And then what happened?
Mr. KURLANTZICK: Well, the politicians - as sometimes happens - were not, perhaps, as coherent as they could have been. And Ne Win sort of stepped into the vacuum caused by the civil war and weak politicians. And ultimately, the military took power in '62 and they've been in power since then.
BLOCK: Over those years, over those four-plus decades, have there been any significant changes among the military regimes - anything that makes the country now different than it was 40 years ago?
Mr. KURLANTZICK: Well, Ne Win was crazy. He often relied on an astrologer. But today, I would say the regime is, in many ways, even more paranoid and isolated. But the difference is that now with Burma's oil and gas coming to the fore, the regime has other international patrons, like China, most notably, but India also. So the regime is just as tough and in some ways as crazy, but they have other countries to rely on now.
BLOCK: And a lot of outside influences is being brought to bear?
Mr. KURLANTZICK: A lot of outside influences is being brought to bear by the U.N., particularly the U.S., Britain. But the key players - China, India, Thailand, to some extent - who hold the cards, haven't brought that much influence.
BLOCK: There was a moment in 1990, after this major crackdown on protesters just two years before, there were elections and the pro-democracy party of Aung San Suu Kyi won in a landslide, but nothing happened. Why not?
Mr. KURLANTZICK: Well, why not is because Aung San Suu Kyi has stuck to her principles of non-violence and the military have none. And the military basically deluded themselves at that time into thinking that if they had a free election, they actually - their party would actually win. And, of course, they didn't. They got destroyed. And then, they never really allowed Suu Kyi's party to take power and she's been on house arrest on and off.
BLOCK: There's one, sort of, looming question, which is whether the regime now will react any differently to these protests than the regime did in 1988, when there was such a bloody end to those demonstrations.
Mr. KURLANTZICK: Well, I think that now the cards really lie with the countries that have the most influence. And that would principally be China. And it's my understanding that behind the scenes, China has been trying to pressure the military government in Burma to at least deal with these protests in a civil way. But it's very unclear whether they'll listen to anyone. Unfortunately, the military in Burma has - unlike almost any other regime in the world - just refused to bow to international pressure.
BLOCK: Joshua Kurlantzick, thanks a lot.
Mr. KURLANTZICK: Thanks you so much.
BLOCK: Joshua Kurlantzick is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He's author of "Charm Offensive," a book about China's relationship with Myanmar and other Asian countries.
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