How Far Will The Changes In Myanmar Go? Myanmar is opening up, after a nominally civilian government replaced a decades-old military regime last year and began political changes. The metamorphosis is occurring from the top down. But crucial questions remain unanswered, and it's unclear whether the moves are permanent.
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How Far Will The Changes In Myanmar Go?

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How Far Will The Changes In Myanmar Go?

How Far Will The Changes In Myanmar Go?

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From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Robert Siegel.


And I'm Audie Cornish.

For decades, Myanmar, also known as Burma, has been widely seen as a pariah state. It was ruled by a group of ruthless military generals. Then, last year, a nominally civilian government took over and began political reforms. Now, foreign investors and tourists are flooding in, and foreign governments are considering lifting their sanctions. But many questions remain unanswered, about the pace of reforms and the people who are launching them.

NPR's Anthony Kuhn traveled to the Burmese capital and filed this report.

ANTHONY KUHN, BYLINE: Lawmakers in ethnic dress and military uniforms file into a cavernous new parliament. Before they were elected just over a year ago, the law was essentially whatever the generals said it was.

Saw Nyein Thin, an ethnic Karen lawmaker, admits that this fledgling parliament still has a long way to go.

SAW NYEIN THIN: (Through Translator) This parliament is not yet strong enough to legislate effectively. It is still too young. But I think that it will gradually accumulate enough power to do its job.

KUHN: Despite being dominated by the ruling party and the military, the parliament has passed laws legalizing street protests and labor unions. It's now drafting a press law, which the government says will ease censorship.

On April 1st, Burmese will elect 48 new lawmakers, one of whom may be pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi. Burmese officials promised that the vote will be genuine.

GENERAL SHWE MANN: Out election must be free, fair and credible, I'm sure.

KUHN: That is Shwe Mann, who used to be the third-ranking general in the old junta. He's apparently been reincarnated as a leader of the reformists and the speaker of the Lower House of Parliament.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa has met with Myanmar's leaders under both the new and old regimes. He says that when they took off their generals' uniforms, they seemed to shed their old political views, too.

MARTY NATALEGAWA: Not only physically in appearance, but in terms of mindset; very much set in their ways and a very militaristic outlook, authoritarian. But now without prodding, they would bring up issues that would in the past have been taboo.

KUHN: Some observers believe that Shwe Mann and President Thein Sein were actually closet liberals within the junta. That's the opinion of Hla Maung Shwe, vice president of Myanmar Egress, a Burmese civic group trying to mediate between the ruling and opposition parties.

HLA MAUNG: (Through Translator) For some time, these reformists have wanted to change the country. But because of the political system that was in place, they couldn't make it happen. But now that they're in positions of power, they're beginning to do it.

KUHN: In Yangon, veteran journalist Thiha Saw says that as Burmese leaders have traveled to neighboring countries, they've become increasingly troubled at how far their country lags behind the rest of the region, and how poorly their traditional reliance on China has paid off.

THIHA SAW: They've been friendly with the Chinese for so many years. Chinese provided them almost everything, from weapons to shoes to plastics to whatever. But then all throughout these years, they didn't even realize that they don't get too much, they get very little.

KUHN: Since last summer, Thiha Saw says rules requiring media to get censors' approval before publishing have been eased. Aung San Suu Kyi and other once-taboo topics are now splashed all over the front pages. At least in this respect, he says, Myanmar appears to be moving towards the sort of soft authoritarian systems favored by its regional neighbors.

SAW: So, does it mean that there will be freedom of press? It's a big question. But we don't see something like what you have in the United States, like a total freedom of press. What we'll get is something most similar to some Asian neighbors, like Indonesia, Malaysia, et cetera.

KUHN: Indonesia's Marty Natalegawa points out that Myanmar will have to face greater international scrutiny when it assumes the rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, in 2014. The decision last year to give Myanmar the chairmanship, he adds, was not so much a reward for its accomplishments as an inducement to live up to international expectations.

NATALEGAWA: It's not a vote of confidence on how Myanmar is today. But it's actually our expectation of how it will be in 2014.

KUHN: Between now and then, he says, there are bound to be setbacks, even as the reforms go forward.

Myanmar's rulers insist that the reforms are irreversible. But if they reneged on their promises of change, it would not be the first time.

Anthony Kuhn, NPR News.

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