FARAI CHIDEYA, host:
And we're not done with politics yet. To give us a read on whether Senator Obama is picking up the mantle of John F. Kennedy, we've got Michael Dawson, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, and Wilbur Rich, professor of political science at Wellesley. Michael, Wilbur, welcome.
Professor WILBUR RICH (Political Science, Wellesley College): Thank you.
Professor MICHAEL DAWSON (Political Science, University of Chicago): Thank you.
CHIDEYA: So, Michael, let me start with you. Over the years, a lot of Republicans had said they were picking up the mantle of Ronald Reagan. Yesterday, Caroline Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama calling him, quote, "a president like my father," her father, of course, being President John F. Kennedy. You also saw Senator Ted Kennedy jumping in on that. Does this affect the race at all, these kinds of endorsements?
Prof. DAWSON: It's hard to say. It might affect the race in a couple of ways that we may not be paying attention to yet. It might affect super delegates, where Hillary Clinton has had somewhat of a lead in that area. And it also might affect some of the big states like California, where Obama's running second, but maybe this will influence enough of the margins to help him pull through up.
CHIDEYA: Wait, can you back up for a second and tell us want a super delegate is?
Prof. DAWSON: Well, super delegate are generally a percentage of the delegates for the convention that aren't directly elected, but are reserved for elected politicians and other party officials. They are the type of people that used to decide who was president.
It might - long, long, lost use, when the conventions themselves could determine who the president would be. So it's a combination of what we see often of elected officials and party officials on one hand and elected delegates at the convention.
CHIDEYA: Wilbur, let's talk a little bit about Bill Clinton. Some members of the press have taken to calling the ex-president and the senator, his wife, Billary, which is kind of like Bradgelina but in politics. Is this a huge diss for them to be painted as a co-presidency? Is this dangerous to them?
Prof. RICH: I think it is. I think that that was a mistake on his part to play himself up at the expense of his wife. I think they'll probably tone that down next time. I don't think that they're going to go forward to Super Tuesday with that kind of strategy. I think that it may - his statements may have tipped the balance in South Carolina in that - because he tried to racialize the campaign. And it didn't work. And I think that that's - they're not going to continue that strategy. I don't expect them to.
CHIDEYA: Wilbur, continuing on a little bit, Super Tuesday, February 5th, two dozen states - nearly two dozen states holding primaries or caucuses. What's ahead? Is there a day after Super Tuesday or will the Democratic race and or the Republican race be wrapped up?
Prof. RICH: Well, there are 17,000 - excuse me - 1,700 votes at stake. So it's a lot at stake. I think that after that election, I think that maybe Mr. Edwards will drop out, I would assume. But I think that would pretty much wrap up the nomination. I can't see how it could do anything but be a two-person race. And I don't look for a brokerage convention or any of that kind of thing, so I think that pretty much - if example is Mr. Obama wins that, I think it's all over. I think the race is over with. And - but I don't know whether he will or not. I think that because I don't know how his organization is - how strong it is in California and some of these other states that are up for voting.
CHIDEYA: Michael, what are your thoughts for the Republicans as well as for the Democrats? Is, you know, February 5th the final litmus test or will this just keep on going?
Prof. DAWSON: I, for once am totally at odds to figuring out what's going on in the Republican Party. I do think that we'll probably have, at most, two people - probably, a single person as a clear frontrunner of both parties. There's a chance that the Democratic Party contest will still be going on after Super Tuesday. It's close. There are several states that both candidates will pick up on Super Tuesday. And there are some big states outstanding after Super Tuesday. There'll probably be a clear frontrunner, but the contest itself may not be over.
CHIDEYA: Now, there's a situation, of course, where Rudy Giuliani, the mayor - former mayor of New York City, has staked everything on Florida. Do you expect, you know - again, it's predictions, predictions, but Wilbur, could he drop out if he doesn't take Florida?
Prof. RICH: I think he will. I think that it will be a two-person race between Romney and McCain. I can't see him going beyond Florida. I think he's put everything - all his eggs in that particular basket. I don't see how he can get out of that particular situation. I expect him to come in third. And if he does, then I think that his campaign is over with.
CHIDEYA: Michael, same question, briefly.
Prof. DAWSON: I think he will come in third. I think he's counting on the early voting, and it's not going to be enough for him to win.
CHIDEYA: All right. Well, Wilbur and Michael, thank you so much for joining us.
Prof. DAWSON: It's been our pleasure. Thanks for having us.
CHIDEYA: We've been speaking with Michael Dawson, a political science professor at the University of Chicago. He joined us from the studio at the University of Chicago, and Wilbur Rich, a professor of political science at Wellesley College.
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