Why Obama Shouldn't Worry About His Lousy Poll Numbers It seems obvious to say that a high approval rating helps a president, while a low approval rating hurts him. But there are reasons to think Obama's weak standing in the polls isn't as troublesome as it sounds.
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Why Obama Shouldn't Worry About His Lousy Poll Numbers

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Why Obama Shouldn't Worry About His Lousy Poll Numbers

Why Obama Shouldn't Worry About His Lousy Poll Numbers

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It's MORNING EDITION, from NPR News. Good morning. I'm Renee Montagne.


And I'm David Greene. President Obama's poll numbers have reached almost the lowest point of his presidency. They started to dip with the Obamacare website rollout, and they've been slipping pretty steadily since then.

Today, around 40 percent of Americans think he's doing a good job, compared to more than 50 percent who disapprove of Obama's performance. A year ago, those numbers were the exact opposite. NPR's Ari Shapiro looks at what impact, if any, this has on the president.

ARI SHAPIRO, BYLINE: OK, it sounds obvious - a high approval rating helps a president; a low approval rating hurts him. But just because something is obvious, that doesn't mean it's true. Let's look at some of the reasons a high approval rating might help a president.

Kevin Madden is a Republican political consultant.

KEVIN MADDEN: The willingness of members of Congress to take risks, risks that are often required when it comes to forging major compromises on legislation, is usually proportional to the president's popularity.

SHAPIRO: In other words, a popular president can often get his agenda through Congress.

MADDEN: Right now, the president is unpopular, so his low poll numbers have made dealing with an already challenging Congress that much more of a difficult task.

SHAPIRO: But look back at what happened when the president was popular. Just after re-election, Obama's approval rating was above 50 percent. He pushed immigration and gun-control policies that had a lot of public support, and neither bill made it through Congress. Obama expressed his fury at the gun bill's failure during an emotional event in the White House Rose Garden.


SHAPIRO: Ann Selzer runs a nonpartisan polling firm in Iowa. She says you can say this for Obama: The guy's consistent.

ANN SELZER: He has problems when his poll numbers are high - in terms of getting legislation passed - and problems when his poll numbers are low.

SHAPIRO: So it's not as though hitting rock-bottom will suck the momentum out of Obama's legislative agenda. It didn't have momentum in the first place. Political scientist Ross Baker, of Rutgers University, says low poll numbers are also relative. Consider the president's approval ratings compared to other leaders in Washington.

ROSS BAKER: Usually, you know, you have a situation in which the president is up and Congress is down, or the president is down and Congress is up. And people liken it to a seesaw. Well, you know, in a sense, what we have now is a kind of rubber seesaw, in which both sides are down.

SHAPIRO: Congressional Republican numbers are so far down into the single digits, that Obama's approval rating actually looks good by comparison. This could be important for the 2014 elections. Typically, in a midterm, the president's party loses seats. Nobody's sure what will happen this time. Democrats would have to gain 17 seats to take back the House of Representatives.

MARY ANN MARSH: Independent voters, more than anybody, are really fed up with the Republicans.

SHAPIRO: Mary Anne Marsh is a Democratic strategist in Boston.

MARSH: For the first time in, I think, modern history, you have polls out there that show that almost 65 percent of all voters want to get rid of their member of Congress. That has never been the case.

SHAPIRO: She believes that number could be more important than Obama's favorability number.

Here's another unique fact about Congress right now: Today, there are fewer swing districts than at almost any time in history. Most places are solid red or blue. In those districts, it doesn't much matter how popular or unpopular the president is. Still, Republican strategist Kevin Madden says the president's standing will be a powerful force in the few purple districts that remain.

MADDEN: Majorities are built in Congress based on a very limited, a much smaller universe of swing districts. But in those swing districts, it's the president's popularity that usually makes a difference between whether a Democrat can win or a Democrat will lose.

SHAPIRO: Look at purple Virginia this week, where governor-elect Terry McAuliffe beat his Republican opponent by a much smaller margin than expected. Many say Obama's weak standing contributed to that outcome.

Although Obama is at a low point right now, his approval rating really has not varied that much. It bounces from the low 50s to around 40. In contrast, President George W. Bush had a high of 90 percent approval, and a low of 25 percent.

There is, of course, one other reason presidents chase high approval ratings: to win re-election. As Obama often tells audiences, that is not something he ever has to worry about again.

Ari Shapiro, NPR News, Washington.

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