As The Lead Cools, Some See Their New Year Take Shape Is that a cross? A ship with a figurehead? It's only human to wonder what the future will hold, especially on the threshold of a new year. In one German tradition, fortune-seekers drop molten lead into cold water — then it's anyone's guess what the strange shapes portend.

As The Lead Cools, Some See Their New Year Take Shape

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Now from politics to more personal prognosticating. As we approach the new year, it's only human to wonder what's ahead. And in Germany, the answer to this age-old question is found in molten lead.

Deena Prichep has that story.

DEENA PRICHEP, BYLINE: When Gesine Kratzner had some scraps of lead left over from a roofing project last winter, she knew just what to do with them. Kratzner lives in Portland, Oregon but grew up in Germany. And as a kid, she and her family would melt bits of lead for a New Year's Eve tradition called Bleigiessen.

GESINE KRATZNER: We would take a spoon and melt the lead above a candle. Then you take the molten lead and you pour it into some cold water, and it would go psssshhh, and harden in crazy shapes.

PRICHEP: And when you look at the shapes, you get a glimpse into what the future will hold.

KRATZNER: They were all blobs, pretty much. But with a bit of fantasy, imagine they were hearts or plants or...


KRATZNER: ...whatever - skulls.

PRICHEP: But why use a candle when you can use a blowtorch?


PRICHEP: Kratzner, along with her family and a few friends, stepped outside on a windy Portland night to show how it's done. After the torch melts the lead, each person takes a turn tipping their molten spoonful into the tub of water. And maybe it's because it's so cold, but it's not so much a sizzle as an explosive pop.


PRICHEP: The shapes that result are pretty spectacular, like shiny little abstract sculptures. And after you fish them out of the water, it's time to read the future.

NICO SWARTZ: It kind of looks like a jester.

KRATZNER: It looks like a little plant. A little, you know, a little sprout coming out of a seed.

MYKLE HANSEN: Kale, possibly cauliflower or romanesco.

PETER TAKOFSKY: The thrust of the tradition is people joking about the shapes, and debating and arguing and laughing over what it might represent. But that really is a playful way of dealing with really big questions.

PRICHEP: Peter Takofsky teaches German culture and folklore at UCLA and over at the Getty Museum. He says that while the practice likely only goes back a few hundred years, the interpretations touch on concerns we've always had around New Year's.

TAKOFSKY: The themes are the big life themes: love, death, economy. I like this tradition because it's a kind of combination of agency and fate. So we're the agent, we pour it and we interpret it. But ultimately, one would say that fate is deciding the shape.

PRICHEP: And, ultimately, that's what the New Year is about.

TAKOFSKY: We try to take charge and resolve, fix thing that we didn't like about the past year. But life continues and sometimes we don't control all of those things.

PRICHEP: While the tradition now is pretty much a game, you have to wonder, did people used to take it seriously? Takofsky says we don't really know. But also, it doesn't really matter.

TAKOFSKY: Traditionally, noise-making was believed to scare off demons who were known to be about on transition points. So it would be similar to asking, if you go out at midnight and bang some pans, or make some noise, or a firecracker or something, do you think you're scaring off demons?

PRICHEP: You probably don't. But you'll probably still do it on New Year's Eve.

For Gesine Kratzner, the lead-pouring tradition means different things at different times. She points to her own father.

KRATZNER: He was 10 years old when the war ended. And he actually has memories of the grown-ups casting the lead and seeing bombs.

PRICHEP: And, as her husband Mykle Hansen points out, you never know what'll happen.

HANSEN: I believe all of these are interesting ways to sort of trick yourself into looking at your own subconscious, 'cause it's hard to look at directly sometimes. But then again, only the future will tell, won't it?

PRICHEP: Because after the lead is poured and the fortunes are read, all we can do is wait and see what sort of year unfolds.

For NPR News, I'm Deena Prichep.


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