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To support Iraq's crumbling army, teams of U.S. military personnel, including Army Green Berets, are beginning to arrive in Baghdad - the work with Iraq's military to identify what can be done to fix it. NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman has that story.
TOM BOWMAN, BYLINE: Rick Brennan remembers sitting around Baghdad back in 2011 with some fellow U.S. military planners. Talk turned to the Iraqi Army of the future.
RICK BRENNAN: We painted a worst-case scenario, a nightmare scenario, that was exactly what we're seeing take place now.
BOWMAN: That nightmare scenario was that after U.S. forces left, the Iraqi army would fall apart, splintering along ethnic lines. Now the U.S. is sending up to 300 military personnel to work with the Iraqi army and get them to push back against the Islamist militants known as ISIS, who are capturing Iraqi cities in the north and west.
Brennan was on the last C-130 out of Baghdad in December, 2011. He's now an analyst with the RAND corporation. What those 300 military advisers will discover is hardly a secret.
BRENNAN: We're going to find an army that is only partially prepared to wage war on its own, and has an enormous amount of capability gaps that can't be filled in the short-term.
BOWMAN: Like being able to supply an army in the field and plan operations. That's what Brennan and others put in their final report back in 2011 to Congress in the Obama administration, saying the Iraqis needed three more years of training. That never happened. The Obama administration and the Iraqi government couldn't agree on a deal to keep U.S. troops in the country.
Now what the U.S. faces is an Iraqi army in far worse shape than the one they left in 2011. One problem - the Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki immediately began to purge the army of the best Sunni commanders. He replaced them with Shia officers known for their loyalty and not their competence. Michael Knights is with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
MICHAEL KNIGHTS: Maliki has turned back to the old Saddam tactic of putting political appointees in senior command posts.
BOWMAN: That helped erode the army. Knights estimates one quarter of all Iraqi battalions cannot be accounted for, and all their equipment is lost. Knights says those American military advisers can start turning things around but stiffening the spine of the Iraqi army, providing guidance, surveillance and operational planning.
KNIGHTS: Putting these 300 advisers in is really more about emergency support right now to prevent further collapses of the military.
BOWMAN: That American help can begin to break the momentum of the ISIS fighters, says Jim Dubik, a retired Army general who trained Iraqi forces - not only advice, but possibly U.S. bombing runs against ISIS targets.
GENERAL JIM DUBIK: Air strikes, properly coordinated, properly targeted, I think, would provide that kind of psychological boost that would then tell the security forces, look, we got a chance to win.
BOWMAN: Rick Brennan of the RAND corporation says the Iraqi army shouldn't have gotten to the point where it needs a psychological boost. It goes back again, he says, to Maliki himself. The U.S. failed to convince the Iraqi leader to repeal laws that prevented Sunnis from getting jobs, to stop arresting and targeting Sunni leaders. Now some of those Sunnis are supporting ISIS.
DUBIK: We fought the counterinsurgency fight. We did very little to work on issues of reconciliation and reintegration.
BOWMAN: But how do you force that though?
DUBIK: We could have forced that in 2007, when we had leverage over the Iraqis and when we could've forced changes in the laws. And that's when we had the surge - the numbers of troops we had on the ground - but by 2010, our leverage over Maliki was waning.
BOWMAN: Vice President Joe Biden became the point man in the administration for Iraq. In January of this year, Biden praised Maliki for his efforts to bring Sunni tribal leaders into the fight against ISIS. Just two weeks later, intelligence officials told Congress that ISIS would continue to take territory in Syria and Iraq this year. Tom Bowman, NPR News, Washington.
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