NEAL CONAN, host:
And now for the TALK OF THE NATION Opinions Page. This week, resident Bush visits India and Pakistan for the first time since taking officer. The President meets with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Journalist Ahmed Rashid wrote an op-ed in this past Sunday's outlook section of the Washington Post. In it, he says that when the President arrives in Pakistan, it may be the closest he will come to his nemesis, Osama bin Laden.
If you have questions for Ahmed Rashid about the search for Osama bin Laden, 800-989-8255, or email us, talk@npr.org. Ahmed Rashid joins us now by phone from Lahore, Pakistan.Thanks for, I know it's late there, thanks for staying up to speak with us.
Mr. AHMED RASHID (Author): Thank you.
CONAN: You say that Osama bin Laden is without a doubt in Pakistan. How come?
Mr. RASHID: Well, that's what American officials have had us believe. For the first three years after 9-11, American officials, the head of the CIA was usually saying that Osama bin Laden was on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, but over the last few months, the head of the CIA and other officials have said very clearly that he's no longer in Afghanistan. Now, that means that he's very much in Pakistan.
And, you know, the bombing by the U.S. missiles just last month, which was aiming at the al-Qaida number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, inside Pakistani territory, indicates that certainly the top al-Qaida leaders are here, and the CIA believes that they are here.
CONAN: And you say that effectively, the wars, the long wars in Afghanistan and ultimately the U.S. intervention there that toppled the Taliban, finally convinced many of the Pashtuns in Pakistan that, enough with the Taliban, enough with al-Qaida, but that the U.S. and Pakistani policy have allowed the creation of a new center for both the Taliban and al-Qaida, in Pakistan.
Mr. RASHID: Well, exactly. Unfortunately, it's been the lack a policy by either the U.S., which was distracted by Iraq for three years, pulling out all their special forces, pulling out its intelligence assets on the Afghan side of the border. And during that period, President Musharraf in Pakistan are not doing anything really to tame the border. And what we've seen subsequently is of course al-Qaida, the Taliban, and several other militant groups, have had two or three years after 9-11 to set up camps, to consolidate, to win over the local population, to train new recruits, who are being sent into Afghanistan and also carry out bombings in Pakistan.
So, what you've had now is, where you had, before 9-11, you had the militants on the other side, on the Afghan side of the border, where they had the protection of the Taliban regime, post 9-11, these militants have just crossed over and they're now on the Pakistani side of the border, where they have the protection of various local tribes and drug lords.
CONAN: Is the Pakistani regime unable to go after them, or unwilling?
Mr. RASHID: Well, certainly over the past two years they have gone after al-Qaida in the northern part of Pakistan, that is, in the tribal areas, in particular, Waziristan. But essentially, what you've seen in the last few months is that they've lost that battle. There are something like 70,000 Pakistani troops Waziristan, but they have, they are in their barracks, they're not patrolling the mountains, and they've literally called off any military action. Down in the south, in Balukistan Province, where the Taliban are very active, there has been no military action. There has been no attempt to stop the Taliban.
CONAN: We're talking with Ahmed Rashid on the TALK OF THE NATION Opinion Page, and this is TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News. Why is it not in the interest of the Pakistani government to suppress the Taliban in Balukistan?
Mr. RASHID: Well, the Taliban have been, were left alone after 9-11. They were supported by Pakistan before 9-11. It was very difficult for President Musharraf immediately after 9-11, when they were routed from Afghanistan, to start picking them up or crushing them in Pakistan. And subsequently what has happened is there were elections in Pakistan in 2002 which brought to power in Balukistan fundamentalist Islamic parties, who in fact were the initial supporters of the Taliban. So, you have a situation in Balukistan Province now where you have political parties running the government, that are extremely sympathetic and supportive of the Taliban.
CONAN: In terms of Osama bin Laden, many American officials will say this is a man who has been cut off, largely, from his supporters, able to only smuggle out an occasional audio tape, a man clearly on the run, no longer in operational control. How important is it, at this point, do you think, to get Osama bin Laden?
Mr. RASHID: I think it's incredibly important. He is, as long as he stays alive, he provides enormous inspiration to his followers. He's able to, the fact that he's alive allows his followers to recruit new members around the world, carry out new bombings. We saw recently what happened in London, with the bombings in London, how these young boys, several of them who'd never been to Afghanistan or Pakistan, were just inspired by his writings and by his speeches. So, I think it is very important. It's symbolically very important also for the sake of Pakistan and Afghanistan, to put this to rest.
CONAN: Let's get a caller on the line, and this is Jack. Jack is calling us from Brecksville, Ohio.
JACK (Caller): Hello. I'd like to ask whether there's a chance that the Taliban will take over in Pakistan? And didn't they come close in the last parliamentary elections there?
CONAN: Well, if not the Taliban, forces allied with them. Ahmed Rashid?
Mr. RASHID: No. I mean, you know, the Taliban are not that strong in Pakistan. But they have fundamentalist allies in the tribal Pashtun areas which border Afghanistan. But it is in relation to the rest of Pakistan, this is a small area.They do not have political support across the rest of the country. Their support is largely relegated to one ethnic group, the Pashtuns, amongst four or five other major ethnic groups in the country.
CONAN: Jack, thank you.
JACK: Is there... Hello?
CONAN: Go ahead. Yeah, go ahead.
JACK: Is there a chance that Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Pakistan?
Mr. RASHID: Well, again, you know the Islamic fundamentalists are certainly gaining in popularity. And when you get problems like the cartoon issue, which has galvanized, you know, tens of thousands of Muslims in Pakistan and right across the Muslim world. All these kinds of issues do tend to add fuel to the fundamentalist fire. But I must say that, you know, Pakistan remains a very, broadly speaking, a very anti-fundamentalist society. It has a growing middle class. Its urban areas are very, very secular in that they are not extremists or fundamentalists. And again, the fundamentalists are relegated to certain regions of the country and certain ethnic groups.
CONAN: We just have a little over a minute left, but I wanted to ask one thing that President Bush has promised to talk about, is to see if there might be an avenue to make progress on the long festering issue of Kashmir.
Mr. RASHID: Well, certainly. I mean, this is the, Pakistan is very keen for international intervention for the Americans to play a more upfront role in mediating the dispute within the (unintelligible) Kashmir, but the Indians are very against it. And the Indians will certainly be very critical if Bush attempts to try any kind of mediation. So, I don't see the Americans publicly being, doing anything, but I think, you know, behind the scenes there could be some pressure exerted on both sides to start a serious dialogue on Kashmir.
CONAN: Ahmed Rashid, thank you very much for being with us.
Mr. RASHID: Thank you.
CONAN: Ahmed Rashid a journalist and the author of three books, most recent called, Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia. Ahmed Rashid's op-ed and all of the previous stories in this series, you can find them all linked at the TALK OF THE NATION page at npr.org. I'm Neal Conan. This is TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News.
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