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Republicans in Congress say they are getting closer to an agreement on health care. House Speaker Paul Ryan said today we're going to go when we have the votes. It's unclear when that might be. Yesterday, lawmakers put forward an amendment to allow states to opt out of a couple provisions of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. In a moment, we'll hear from a Republican lawmaker who is not won over. First, as NPR health policy correspondent Alison Kodjak reports, insurance companies are struggling to respond to the mixed signals they're getting from lawmakers and the White House.
ALISON KODJAK, BYLINE: Tom Policelli is trying to run a health insurance company, but President Trump and members of Congress are not making it easy.
TOM POLICELLI: The current debate is largely not helpful and is heading things in a direction that will make things even worse.
KODJAK: Policelli is the CEO of Minuteman Health, which operates in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. He's trying to determine what to charge for Obamacare policies next year. The immediate issue is whether the government will keep paying so-called cost-sharing subsidies to insurance companies. The money covers discounts the insurers are required to give to low-income customers to offset deductibles and copayments.
The Trump administration seems to have agreed to make the payments for the short term, but the president is still threatening to cut them off later. Without the subsidies, at least one study shows, premiums could go up 20 percent. But Policelli says the markets have lots of other problems, too. It's technical stuff, he says, and starts telling me about medical loss ratios, risk adjustment schemes.
POLICELLI: And this is very - sounds very boring. It is very boring. I'm an insurance guy. I'm very boring.
POLICELLI: But this stuff is killing the industry and driving out competition and driving prices up.
KODJAK: He says lawmakers could fix the problems if they want to. And if they don't, Trump could do a lot on his own. The question is, will they? It's still up in the air, so Policelli is preparing for next year without knowing what rules he'll have to play by.
POLICELLI: At times, it feels like, you know, you're building a boat while at sea in a storm at night. But that's what we're here to do.
KODJAK: Meanwhile, in Tennessee, Julie Mix McPeak, the state's insurance commissioner, is trying to recruit new companies into the areas of the state abandoned by other insurance companies.
JULIE MIX MCPEAK: Unfortunately, we haven't had a tremendous amount of success in some of those discussions.
KODJAK: A promise from Congress or the Trump administration to pay for the cost-sharing reductions, commonly known as CSRs, would help.
MIX MCPEAK: What I'm hearing from insurers in my state and actually from my colleagues nationally is that the CSR funding is critical in some of these participation decisions that the insurers are contemplating for 2018.
KODJAK: Without that money, it's going to be very difficult to offer affordable policies next year, says Dave Anderson. He's the CEO of HealthNow, which operates Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans in upstate New York. Those payments account for as much as 20 percent of the premiums for his subsidized customers.
DAVE ANDERSON: If the funding is not adequate, then we have to make a decision of whether we want other policyholders to subsidize these or do we have to leave that segment. And both of those are real considerations.
KODJAK: Right now, his company is spending $1.08 in claims for every dollar it takes in in premiums for its Obamacare exchange customers. Continuing the cost-sharing payments isn't the only fix he wants, but it will sure help make his Obamacare plans viable.
ANDERSON: We're not intending, frankly, to make them profitable. We'd be satisfied with just breaking even, and we'd stay in the marketplace if we could break even.
KODJAK: And for now, that decision lies in Washington. Alison Kodjak, NPR News.
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