RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:
The airline industry is really struggling right now, with travel demand just collapsing. United Airlines is warning that it may have to furlough 36,000 employees this fall. And this isn't the only industry in real danger. Here's NPR's Scott Horsley.
SCOTT HORSLEY, HOST:
Sara Nelson calls the warning of massive job cuts by United a gut punch. But the head of the flight attendants' union says it's also the most honest assessment she's seen of the state of the airline industry and many others.
SARA NELSON: The threat to the economy is the virus itself. People don't believe that it's safe. They don't believe it's contained. And that's why people are not flying.
HORSLEY: Other industries are facing similar uncertainty. The Derse company in Wisconsin builds exhibits for trade shows, a business that's been decimated by the pandemic. Last month, the company notified state officials it's cutting 87 jobs in Milwaukee, the first such cuts in the company's more than 70-year history. The last of those layoffs come next week.
DEAN WANTY: They're devastated. This is something that I hope I never have to see again in my lifetime.
HORSLEY: Dean Wanty represents some of the affected workers who belong to the painters' union. He says when trade shows started getting canceled in the spring, he thought it would be a short-term problem, certainly not one that would drag this far into the summer.
WANTY: I thought this would be all over with, I really did. So I think a lot of other people felt the same way.
HORSLEY: But while other countries have managed to get control of the pandemic, infections in the U.S. are accelerating, with new cases now topping 60,000 a day. Derse CEO Brett Haney says, while the trade show situation is unpredictable, some of the layoffs may last six months or more.
BRETT HANEY: To me, it's not a matter of if our industry comes back. It's a matter of when. And, unfortunately, it probably won't happen until some point next year.
HORSLEY: To be sure, some businesses have reopened. And millions of workers who were furloughed in March and April have now gone back to work. But two out of three jobs cut during the pandemic have not returned. And week after week, hundreds of thousands of new people join the unemployment rolls.
NICK BUNKER: I think that's a really distressing and concerning sign for the labor market.
HORSLEY: Economist Nick Bunker is with the Indeed Hiring Lab, the research arm of the job listing website. He says while weekly unemployment claims have fallen from their springtime peak, they're still very high. And the longer this drags on, Bunker says, the more lasting the damage may be.
BUNKER: Earlier in the crisis, there was some optimism that people would return to their job fairly quickly. What we're seeing now is more indication that lots more people who are unemployed are going to be unemployed for a longer period of time.
HORSLEY: The Verso company, for example, is idling a paper mill in Wisconsin later this month and cutting 900 jobs. The company blames a sharp drop in demand for advertising paper used by retailers, sports teams and the tourist industry - all because of the pandemic. The company says the mill could be restarted if conditions improve. But it warns the shutdown may be permanent. What's more, there are few openings for people seeking new jobs. Listings on the Indeed website are down about 25% from this time last year. That's an improvement from the spring, when listings were down nearly 40%. But Bunker says listings for higher paid jobs have been slow to recover, reflecting employers' uncertainty about where the economy might be six months or a year from now.
BUNKER: The concern is that the damage starts to ripple out to other parts of the economy that are indirectly affected by the virus.
HORSLEY: Many of the federal relief programs passed early in the pandemic assume the economy and the job market would be well on the road to recovery by now. With double digit unemployment and infections growing by the day, policymakers may have to rethink that timeline.
Scott Horsley, NPR News, Washington.
(SOUNDBITE OF CAVES OF STEEL'S "MAGIC SMOKE OUT")
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