FARAI CHIDEYA, host:
And now for more on the Zimbabwean elections and a larger look at political elections in Africa. We've got Professor Edmond Keller. He's the director of the Globalization Research Center on Africa at the University of California, Los Angeles. Welcome back.
Professor EDMOND KELLER (UCLA): Thank you. Glad to be here.
CHIDEYA: So you just heard Violet talk about how Zimbabweans are feeling about this election. Robert Mugabe has been in power for almost three decades. What are the actual rules for this election?
Prof. KELLER: Well, actually right now there are going to be four different electoral contests, one for the presidency, one for the parliament, and one for the senate, and then there will be some local elections, and voters will have to vote in each one of those. And for the presidency, a candidate can be elected on the first round if he gets 51 percent of the votes. If no candidates gets 51 percent of the vote, within three weeks there has to be a runoff involving the top two contestants.
CHIDEYA: There is already a debate going on about whether or not this is a fair election and it hasn't even happened yet. The International Crisis Group issued a report saying the elections are already ,quote, "flawed by pre-poll misbehavior by the government." And then you also have the opposition party, the Movement For Democratic Change, saying that the government has printed three million excess ballots which could be used for ballot box stuffing. What are the chances that this will be a free and fair election?
Prof. KELLER: Well from all I can tell, it doesn't seem like this will be a free and fair election, although Mugabe has structured things prior to the election, on non-electoral kinds of things, so that he might easily win with the popular vote. For example, he introduced this Indigenization and Economic Empowerment Act, which is supposed to guarantee that every foreign-owned company and multinational corporation operating in Zimbabwe has at least 51 percent of its assets controlled by indigenous Zimbabweans. He has also raised the salaries of public officials, of bureaucrats, military officials, teachers, all in an effort to get a favorable outcome from those groups.
And, of course, you know, you've heard about the electoral problems. For example, it's estimated that there are not enough polling places in the capital city, and this would be the stronghold of the opposition, and each individual will have somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 minutes to vote in all four elections that I mentioned. By contrast, in Mashonaland, where Mugabe is strong, there are enough polling places, and folks will have a much more extended period of time in which to cast their own personal vote.
CHIDEYA: It's interesting. It reminds me of the last U.S. presidential election, where there were some allegations that in Ohio in particular, the urban areas had overcrowded, long waits, long lines, and then the suburban areas had more polling places.
So in some ways, these questions of fairness, they arise in the worst of circumstances and then in much better circumstances. But on that note, let's broaden this a little bit to talk about elections in Africa. How many African nations, or what portion of African nations, seem to have an electoral process that is stable and that works for the citizens versus other ones that are either dictatorships or where elections are unpredictable, not free and not fair?
Prof. KELLER: There are not many military dictatorships in Africa, as opposed to 20 years ago. There are multi-party systems throughout the continent, but we have to remember that elections do not necessarily equal democracy. But there have been - you know, I think that, you know, the places where there have been successful turnovers of incumbent regimes under a multi-party system are not given enough credit. They are many more than they are not.
The balance we saw in Kenya was unexpected. Kenya had had a smooth transition from the rule of Daniel arap Moi to the rule of Mwai Kibaki, and it could very well have turned out that we had two, if it wasn't for some electoral rigging and planning on the part of the two different camps to destabilize the country after these elections.
Ghana's had a smooth transition eight years ago and is going to have another election pretty soon, and it's expected that that will be a free and fair election. Benin is a good place to think about, Madagascar, Mauritius. So I think that, you know, it's important to realize that even though it looks like Africans are always at each others' throats surrounding elections, it's not as dire as we might think.
CHIDEYA: You mentioned that you believe that elections don't equal democracy. How do you distinguish the two of those?
Prof. KELLER: Well, you know, elections are procedures that we find in democracies. But, you know, there has to be a culture of democracy. If you had a free and fair election, there wouldn't be rigging. There wouldn't be ballot-stuffing and intimidation. So democracy has more components than just elections.
CHIDEYA: Tell me about what you call the two-turnover test and how it relates to elections in Africa.
Prof. KELLER: Well, that's a term that's been coined by American political scientists, and it relates to the fact that once you have - you had the move away from single-party systems to multi-party systems, and even if the incumbent in the single-party system became a contestant in the two-party system or multi-party system, there would be, now, term limits, as opposed to in the past.
So let's say - for example, Jerry Rowlings introduced multi-party democracy in Ghana. He stood for two terms. He won in both of those terms, but now he's been succeeded by this businessman, John Kufour. If these elections come off without a hitch, well then we'll be seeing that transitions have been orderly. And if Kufour is thrown out, of course, or his successor is thrown out, then that would be further sign of the consolidation and deepening of democracy. So that's basically what that essentially means.
CHIDEYA: Do you think that international observers are going to be watching Zimbabwe closely, you know, assuming, if so, that they'll mainly be outside of the country?
Prof. KELLER: Yes, they will mainly be outside of the country. The ones that will definitely be inside are representatives of the African Union, as well as the representatives of the South African development community. It's said that observers from Iran, from China, from Russia and maybe even North Korea will also be there, but no E.U. or United States representation.
CHIDEYA: Hmm, I'm seeing a trend. It's former Soviet Union, Cold War affiliated, and then that gets into the whole complex history of the Cold War in Africa. But you can tell that it's kind of like there's like an ideological line, and if you're on this one side, you can come in. And if you're on the other side, you can't.
Prof. KELLER: Yeah, exactly. The case of China is interesting because China makes it a practice in its Africa policy to claim non-interference in a country's politics. And that makes it a favorite in places like Sudan and like Zimbabwe, which have some very basic problems. But these African countries also have natural resources that China desires. And so there's this quid pro quo, so to speak.
And Russia, of course, is, you know, perhaps arguably the world's largest supplier of illicit arms, and that's, you know, a connection, as well. And, of course, North Korea has trained some Zimbabwean soldiers and has a good relationship with Mugabe. So you can see there's a connection.
CHIDEYA: Absolutely. Professor Keller, thank you so much.
Prof. KELLER: Thank you.
Edmond Keller is a professor of political science and the director of the Globalization Research Center on Africa at UCLA. He was with me at our NPR West studios.
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