SYLVIE DOUGLIS, BYLINE: NPR.
(SOUNDBITE OF DROP ELECTRIC SONG, "WAKING UP TO THE FIRE")
CARDIFF GARCIA, HOST:
Hey, everyone. Stacey and Cardiff here. And today is Friday...
STACEY VANEK SMITH, HOST:
Yes.
GARCIA: ...At THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY...
VANEK SMITH: It is.
GARCIA: It's our favorite day of the week for a number of reasons, but mainly because...
VANEK SMITH: (Laughter).
GARCIA: ...I finally get to end my losing streak in Rock, Paper, Scissors against Stacey Vanek Smith.
VANEK SMITH: That is some big talk, Cardiff Garcia.
GARCIA: Very exciting (laughter).
VANEK SMITH: And if the last three matches in a row have anything to say about it, I don't know if you should be talking so tough.
GARCIA: Yeah. We should tell our listeners why we play Rock, Paper Scissors.
VANEK SMITH: Yes.
GARCIA: It's because you and I have each chosen our indicator of the week. We don't tell each other what that indicator is before we tape the show. And so we basically ambush each other with them, and we play Rock, Paper, Scissors for who gets to go first.
VANEK SMITH: Yes. And we have some indicators of the week from listeners, too.
GARCIA: Absolutely. Coming right up.
(SOUNDBITE OF MATTHEW ALEXANDER HOLLAND'S "CHAPS AND SPATS")
GARCIA: OK, Stacey...
VANEK SMITH: Yeah.
GARCIA: ...Rock, Paper, Scissors...
VANEK SMITH: Yeah.
GARCIA: ...On three. Here we go. One, two, three.
VANEK SMITH: Oh.
GARCIA: No.
VANEK SMITH: (Laughter).
GARCIA: No. Four in a row.
VANEK SMITH: Scissor cuts paper. Scissor cuts paper. Four...
GARCIA: Again.
VANEK SMITH: ...Four, four - the streak continues.
GARCIA: What the chances are of losing four...
VANEK SMITH: Oh.
GARCIA: ...Consecutive games of Rock, Paper, Scissors? Astronomical. But anyways...
VANEK SMITH: I mean, honestly...
GARCIA: ...Congrats.
VANEK SMITH: ...Mathematically, this is not a coincidence.
(LAUGHTER)
GARCIA: All right, so you get to go first. What is your indicator of the week?
VANEK SMITH: It's really actually hard to move on. I think we should just spend a couple more minutes talking about...
GARCIA: (Laughter).
VANEK SMITH: ...My Rock, Paper, Scissors skills and, like, just the psychological game that I have been commanding.
GARCIA: I'm sorry. I'm losing the connection. I can't hear you.
VANEK SMITH: Oh, you're losing the connection?
GARCIA: I'm sorry.
VANEK SMITH: Yeah...
GARCIA: Yeah, right.
VANEK SMITH: ...Driving into a tunnel? It happens.
GARCIA: (Laughter).
VANEK SMITH: OK. My indicator of the week is 10%.
GARCIA: Ten percent. OK.
VANEK SMITH: Ten percent.
GARCIA: What's going on with 10%?
VANEK SMITH: Ten percent - and this will make sense very quickly - is the amount of global trade that passes through the Suez Canal (laughter).
GARCIA: Oh, OK. I know where we're headed with this. yeah.
VANEK SMITH: You know where we're headed with this.
GARCIA: This is a big deal.
VANEK SMITH: Yeah, so this week has been full of these, I have to say, kind of comical images - I mean, I know it's not necessarily funny, but - of a ship that was blown sideways in the canal and got stuck. And all these ships that were backed up, which I have to say, Cardiff, just reminds me of the seven years I lived in Los Angeles and spent lots of time trying to do three-point turns on narrow roads, backing up traffic.
But the thing that blew my mind reading the stories was just how big of a deal this was in terms of global trade. Ninety percent of goods are still transported by ship in the world. It's, like...
GARCIA: Yeah.
VANEK SMITH: ...Almost all of our goods are transported by ship. So, of course, one ship gets stuck in the Suez Canal, and it completely disrupts global trade. It pushed up oil prices because, like, 10% of refined oil passes through the Suez Canal. And, I mean, it's just shocking how much this one ship disrupted trade around the whole world.
GARCIA: Yeah. And, I mean, trade is a very important part of the global economy...
VANEK SMITH: Yeah.
GARCIA: ...Obviously. So I am hoping that the ship does get unstuck as quickly as possible because that'll make it possible for us to then be able to laugh about it instead of lamenting the fact that, you know, trade is being slowed down because the longer it persists, the less funny it becomes. But...
VANEK SMITH: Yes.
GARCIA: ...If it gets unstuck quickly, then I think it's OK to have a chuckle at this.
VANEK SMITH: Well, it's a little bit hard. I mean, the ships are just massive, so it is 1,300 feet long, which is - of course, I looked this up because journalists have to do this - the size of four soccer fields.
GARCIA: Wow.
VANEK SMITH: Isn't that...
GARCIA: That is...
VANEK SMITH: That is huge.
GARCIA: Yeah.
VANEK SMITH: I mean, these ships are vast. They are stacked high with the shipping containers. And, you know, like, most of the stuff that we get when we order things comes to us via those ships.
GARCIA: Excellent indicator. So 10% of global trade...
VANEK SMITH: Yes.
GARCIA: ...Passing through the Suez Canal.
VANEK SMITH: Yes.
GARCIA: Amazing.
VANEK SMITH: OK, paper. Take it away.
GARCIA: Are you ready for mine? All right.
VANEK SMITH: Yeah.
GARCIA: This week marked a kind of strange and unexpected one-year anniversary. So on March 23 of last year, that was the day that the stock market in the U.S. hit rock bottom. And in the year that followed - so through earlier this week - the U.S. stock market went up 76%. That's my indicator. And...
VANEK SMITH: Wow.
GARCIA: ...It is the best year of U.S. stock market returns in almost a century - I mean, going all the way back to roughly the 1930s. We have mentioned many times on this show that the vast majority of the U.S. stock market is owned by a relatively small share of the population that's pretty well-off.
VANEK SMITH: Yeah.
GARCIA: And what's interesting about the performance of the stock market is that it's largely a byproduct of economic policies that kept the economy from collapsing and that were not targeted at helping the well-off - that actually, the economic policies that have been put in place since about a year ago have largely and successfully targeted helping people lower down the income distribution, people who will have lost their jobs because of the pandemic and who really would have needed the help.
And I think it shows that the economy is not a zero-sum game, that it's quite interconnected, that policies that end up bolstering overall economic growth and that also are targeted in this case, helping the people who really needed the help, did not hurt people that didn't necessarily need the help, that we all kind of were in this together. And I think that's an interesting lesson and one we're going to be kind of teasing out in the years to come in assessing its implications.
VANEK SMITH: Oh, yeah. absolutely.
GARCIA: Excellent. And by the way, we saved the best for last, Stacey - our own listeners'...
VANEK SMITH: Yes.
GARCIA: ...Indicators of the week they sent us.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
LAURIE BENSON: This is Laurie Benson (ph) in Lincoln, Neb. Every four years, the American Society of Civil Engineers puts out a report card on the nation's infrastructure - things like roads, bridges, broadband. Four years ago, the grade was a D plus. This year's grade is better at C minus. But you have to wonder if the country should lose its television privileges until our grade improves.
GARCIA: No. We just need to grade on a curve.
VANEK SMITH: (Laughter) I love this. It's like a pothole indicator.
GARCIA: A literal upgrade is needed.
VANEK SMITH: I love it. Yes.
AMY MCPHERSON: This is Amy McPherson (ph) calling from beautiful, snowy Fairbanks, Alaska. A big number for Alaskans this week is 16, as in the proposed 16 cent per gallon fuel tax, which would double the existing tax set back in 1970 and currently the lowest in the nation.
VANEK SMITH: Wow. I mean, that seems like a big moment for Alaska. But also, I feel like, you know, Alaskans need some love because those winters. And it's very dark.
LYNN: Hello, Planet Money. This is Lynn (ph) calling from Prague. My indicator of the week that I wanted to share with you is 861 billion U.S. dollars. This is the amount of total e-commerce sales in 2020 in the U.S., which is a 44% increase from 2019.
VANEK SMITH: I just - Prague? That's amazing.
GARCIA: Shoutout to Prague. All right.
VANEK SMITH: And e-commerce, of course.
GARCIA: (Laughter).
VANEK SMITH: Staying on topic (laughter). I love these, by the way.
GARCIA: Yeah. These are fun.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: Hi, Cardiff. I've got a Rock, Paper Scissors strategy for you.
VANEK SMITH: (Laughter).
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: So don't let Stacey listen to this.
GARCIA: Turn it off. Turn it off.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: In 2014, there was this big study on Rock, Paper, Scissors strategy.
GARCIA: Stacey, don't listen.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: The researchers noticed an interesting pattern. The pattern was that winners tend to stick with the action that won, but losers tend to switch. And they switch in a predictable pattern. It's the pattern of the name of the game - rock, then paper, then scissors. And, Cardiff, I went back and looked at your three plays, and sure enough, you started with rock, then you went to paper, then you went to scissors. My guess is Stacey is onto you, and she's going to expect you to go rock. So I would recommend that you go scissors. Good luck. I hope you're first this week.
VANEK SMITH: (Laughter).
GARCIA: Sadly, we played that excellent advice in front of Stacey, so...
VANEK SMITH: So awesome (laughter) and after you lost another round of...
GARCIA: Yes.
VANEK SMITH: ...Rock, Paper, Scissors in exactly the way he predicted. I love this guy.
GARCIA: Awesome.
VANEK SMITH: I mean, I'm going to want to see a copy of this study immediately.
GARCIA: Yeah.
VANEK SMITH: (Laughter).
GARCIA: And if you, our listeners, have more indicators of the week you'd like to send us, email them to indicator@npr.org.
This episode of THE INDICATOR was produced by Brittany Cronin and fact-checked by Sam Cai. It was edited by Jolie Myers. And THE INDICATOR is a production of NPR.
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