LEILA FADEL, HOST:
From afar, the rapid advance by rebel fighters in Syria seemed to come out of nowhere.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Yet this is part of a series of events in the Middle East that have been taking place for more than a year now. Collectively, they have destabilized the wider region and helped reignite a civil war in Syria that had settled into a yearslong stalemate.
FADEL: For a closer look, we're now joined by NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre. Hi, Greg.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Leila.
FADEL: OK, so let's start with a quick update on the latest fighting in Syria after this rebel offensive began. Where do things stand?
MYRE: Right, so the rebels have effectively captured Aleppo, Syria's second largest city, which is in the northwest. And they've been pushing south now for several days in the direction of the capital, Damascus, though that's still quite a distance away. Syria's government army is trying to regroup. Syria is getting at least some help from its traditional allies. Russia is carrying out airstrikes. Iran is trying to rally diplomatic support. So right now, we're watching to see if the rebels can continue to gain ground or if the Syrian Army, along with its allies, can stop the advance and mount a counterattack.
FADEL: Now, this isn't happening in a vacuum, right? What other events are linked to what we're seeing in Syria?
MYRE: Yeah, Leila, I think we really need to begin with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year. The very next day, the Lebanese group Hezbollah joined in, firing rockets into northern Israel as a show of support for Hamas in Gaza. And then the fighting kept spreading in the region. We saw the first ever direct confrontations between Israel and Iran. And despite all this fighting, in Syria, President Bashar Assad tried to keep a low profile. He wasn't saying much. He didn't want to get involved in the surrounding conflicts. Now, Assad has been accused of widespread abuses and atrocities since Syria's civil war began in 2011. But the war has been on a low simmer for the past few years, and Assad wanted to keep it that way.
FADEL: But what sparked this new round of fighting?
MYRE: So I put that question to Paul Salem. He's based in Beirut with the Middle East Institute. He drew a series of connections that followed the Hamas attack on Israel last year.
PAUL SALEM: And Israel's large-scale retaliation, it has dealt a staggering blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon. And Hezbollah in Lebanon, which was one of the main fighting forces that saved the Assad regime from collapse in 2015, they are no longer really available to do that. Also, Iran itself, they really are on the back foot as well.
MYRE: So the rebels saw Syria's allies weakened and distracted, and they launched this offensive against the Syrian government troops. And the speed of this rebel advance has really surprised most everyone.
FADEL: Yeah, I mean, this stunning takeover of Aleppo, can it keep going? Do the rebels have the firepower to keep going?
MYRE: You know, it's not clear. The rebel force is known as HTS. It's an Islamist group once linked to al-Qaida. It's cut those ties, but it still wants to establish an Islamist state. The group isn't claiming territory as fast as it was a few days ago, and it could become stretched too thin if the Syrian forces can regroup.
FADEL: Can the Syrian forces, the Syrian Army, regroup and counterattack?
MYRE: That's really an open question. Paul Salem says Syria's allies are providing some help.
SALEM: Pounding areas in, you know, what's called the rebel-held areas. Iran is already moving allied militia forces to Syria. I wouldn't be surprised to read reports that Hezbollah is moving fighters from Lebanon to Syria as well.
MYRE: But he stresses that this help is expected to be limited.
FADEL: That's NPR's Greg Myre. Thank you, Greg.
MYRE: Sure thing, Leila.
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