< Here's what's behind Russia cutting off its last gas line to Europe

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Much of this country faces cold weather. It is 19 degrees here in Washington this morning, but at least most of us can turn up the heat. People in parts of Moldova have some trouble with that part. The former Soviet republic is facing a winter heating crisis because they are a casualty of geopolitics. They were affected when a deal that allowed natural gas to move through pipelines from Russia to Europe collapsed. NPR's Charles Maynes is covering this from Moscow. Hey there, Charles.

CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Morning.

INSKEEP: Who's affected?

MAYNES: Well, you know, this crisis is really focused on a specific region of Moldova called Transnistria. It's a self-declared republic. It's not recognized internationally. They broke away from Moldova in the aftermath of the end of the Soviet Union. And it survived thanks to support from Moscow, not only in the form of Russian peacekeeping troops on the ground but also cheap Russian gas. Now that that gas has been cut off, Transnistria has seen a cascade of problems. First, there was no heat and hot water, with residents told to gather firewood or head to warming stations. Then, nearly all factories ground to a halt. And - now, it's important to keep in mind that Transnistria's key power plant has managed to switch to operating on coal. That's the good news. The bad is people have also switched to portable electric heaters.

INSKEEP: Oh.

MAYNES: And that's stressed the power grid to the limit, says the breakaway region's leader, Vadim Krasnoselsky.

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PRESIDENT VADIM KRASNOSELSKY: (Non-English language spoken).

MAYNES: So here, Krasnoselsky explains that Transnistrians are using a third more electricity than the power station can actually produce. And he warns that, if that continues, the whole station will blow. There'll be no electricity at all.

INSKEEP: OK. This story teaches us something about infrastructure and about the way the economy works. So how did this gas crisis come about?

MAYNES: Well, the truth is, Russia's gas trade with Europe, which goes back decades, unraveled amid the war in Ukraine, with most of Europe boycotting Russian exports in solidarity with Kyiv. There was, however, one notable exception until recently - a Russian pipeline that continued to run through Central Europe through, of all places, Ukraine.

INSKEEP: Yeah.

MAYNES: Another reason for this was that Ukraine had continued to honor a pre-invasion contract to export Russian gas to countries like Slovakia, Austria and Moldova, with Kyiv collecting transit fees - only that agreement formally ended January 1, and Ukraine's government refused to extend it, saying it was akin to blood money.

INSKEEP: OK, so Ukraine takes another step in its conflict with Russia. They end the gas transit deal that a number of European countries depend upon. And how have different countries been dealing with it?

MAYNES: Well, you know, Ukraine gave some warning here. So even if not everybody's happy about it, most of Europe has come up with other energy solutions - including Moldova, frankly, which imported energy from the West, albeit at higher prices, which is no small ask for one of Europe's poorest countries. And yet Moldova remains vulnerable because of problems in this breakaway region, Transnistria, which never made the switch away from cheap Russian gas.

INSKEEP: Well, what role is Russia playing here?

MAYNES: Well, the Kremlin spokesman this morning blamed Ukraine and Moldova for the crisis. However, Moldova argues there are these wider geopolitics at play. You know, gas exports have long been a tool of Russian influence in Moldova, but particularly at moments when Moldova's government has tried to move out of Russia's orbit. And that's exactly what's happening now, as the current government pursues membership in the European Union.

INSKEEP: Ah.

MAYNES: The end of this Ukraine transit deal actually coincided with Russia suspending all gas exports to Moldova, supposedly over debts. It's a charge Moldova disputes. In fact, Moldova's prime minister, Dorin Recean, argues Russia's weaponizing the moment, with an eye towards key elections in Moldova next fall.

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PRIME MINISTER DORIN RECEAN: The meaning of all of this is for Russia to create instability in the region but also, very importantly, to influence the results of the parliamentary elections in Moldova.

MAYNES: Well, whether that's Russia's aim or not - and some observers argue you can't let Moldova's government off the hook entirely. They say if there's a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, it's a challenge that Moldova needs to meet if it wants to smooth over resentments.

INSKEEP: You taught me something about a strategic part of the world. NPR's Charles Maynes, thanks so much.

MAYNES: (Laughter) Welcome, Steve.

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